基于多指标风险评价的森林火灾风险地区筛选与防控研究

Research on Screening and Prevention Control of Forest Fire Risk Zones Based on Multi-Indicator Risk Assessment

摘要: 森林作为我国生态系统的核心组成部分，其安全稳定事关生态安全、人民群众生命财产安全及改革发展稳定大局。2005年以来，我国森林火灾频发，造成了严重的生态破坏与经济损失，森林防火已成为防灾减灾工作的重中之重。本文基于国家统计局提供的我国31个地区的一般火灾次数、较大火灾次数、重大火灾次数、特别重大火灾次数、火场总面积、受害森林面积、人工林受害面积、森林火灾伤亡人数、森林火灾死亡人数及森林火灾其他损失折款等10项核心指标，构建多指标风险评价体系，采用熵权法对31个地区的火灾风险进行量化排序，筛选出风险最高的5个地区(依次为四川省、福建省、贵州省、内蒙古自治区和广西壮族自治区)，为我国林业部门制定精准化、差异化的森林防火政策，提升火灾防控针对性提供了重要的理论支撑与实践参考。

Abstract: Forests constitute a core component of China’s ecosystems, and their safety and stability are crucial to ecological security, the safety of people’s lives and property, as well as the overall stability of reform, development and social governance. Since 2005, forest fires have occurred frequently in China, causing severe ecological damage and economic losses. Forest fire prevention has therefore become a top priority in disaster prevention and mitigation efforts. Based on ten core indicators from the National Bureau of Statistics covering 31 provincial-level regions in China—including the number of general fires, larger fires, major fires, extremely serious fires, total fire scene area, affected forest area, damaged artificial forest area, casualties from forest fires, fatalities from forest fires, and converted economic losses of forest fires—this study establishes a multi-indicator risk evaluation system. The entropy weight method is adopted to quantitatively rank the forest fire risk of the 31 regions, and the five highest-risk regions are identified in sequence: Sichuan Province, Fujian Province, Guizhou Province, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The research findings provide important theoretical support and practical references for forestry authorities in China to formulate targeted and differentiated forest fire prevention policies and enhance the precision of fire prevention and control.