基于主成分分析法对橡胶和塑料制品行业的绩效评价研究

Performance Evaluation of the Rubber and Plastics Products Industry Using Principal Component Analysis

摘要: 企业绩效评价是企业管理的重要组成部分，科学的评价方法能够为企业经营决策提供有力支持。本文以我国橡胶和塑料制品行业105家上市公司为研究对象，选取偿债能力、营运能力、盈利能力和发展能力四个维度共11个财务指标，运用主成分分析法构建企业综合绩效评价模型。首先对指标数据进行标准化处理，解决了不同量纲指标的可比性问题；其次通过KMO检验(0.620)和Bartlett球形检验(p < 0.001)验证了数据适合进行主成分分析；然后依据特征值大于1的原则提取了3个主成分，累计方差贡献率达到70.31%；最后计算各企业综合得分并进行排序。研究结果表明，偿债能力、盈利能力和运营效率是影响企业综合绩效的三大核心因素，其方差贡献率分别为28.27%、25.02%和17.02%，其中偿债能力对绩效的贡献最大。从排名前列企业的表现来看，江苏博云、科拜尔、朗博科技等企业在偿债能力指标上表现突出，综合得分位居行业前列。本研究为企业管理者优化资本结构、提升盈利水平、提高运营效率提供了量化决策参考，为投资者筛选优质标的、监管部门识别风险企业提供了实证依据。

Abstract: Enterprise performance evaluation is an important component of corporate management, and scientific evaluation methods can provide strong support for business decision-making. This study takes 105 listed companies in China’s rubber and plastic products industry as the research object, selects 11 financial indicators from four dimensions—solvency, operational capacity, profitability, and development capacity—and uses Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to construct a comprehensive performance evaluation model. Firstly, the indicator data were standardized to address the comparability issue of different dimensional indicators. Secondly, the suitability of the data for PCA was verified through the KMO test (0.620) and Bartlett’s sphericity test (p < 0.001). Thirdly, three principal components were extracted based on the criterion of eigenvalues greater than 1, with a cumulative variance contribution rate of 70.31%. Finally, the comprehensive scores of each enterprise were calculated and ranked. The results show that solvency, profitability, and operational efficiency are the three core factors affecting corporate comprehensive performance, with variance contribution rates of 28.27%, 25.02%, and 17.02%, respectively, among which solvency contributes the most to performance. From the performance of the top-ranked enterprises, Jiangsu Boyun, Kebeier, Langbo Technology and other enterprises performed outstandingly in solvency indicators, with their comprehensive scores ranking at the forefront of the industry. This study provides quantitative decision-making references for corporate managers to optimize capital structure, improve profitability, and enhance operational efficiency, and offers empirical evidence for investors to select high-quality targets and for regulatory authorities to identify risky enterprises.