结构性货币政策对我国经济增长影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Structural Monetary Policy on China’s Economic Growth

摘要: 当前全球经济不确定性加剧，我国经济转向高质量发展阶段，结构性矛盾凸显，传统总量货币政策精准调控不足，结构性货币政策已成为宏观调控核心工具。本文以2000~2022年中国31个省级面板数据为样本，构建多维度计量分析框架，结合多种实证方法，从工具异质性、行业传导、区域传导、周期适配四个维度展开研究。研究发现，结构性货币政策对区域经济增长呈正向影响，再贷款工具效果最优；行业传导呈现科技产业 > 服务业 > 制造业的梯度差异；区域传导东部优于中西部，金融基础设施与产业匹配度是关键；政策逆周期调节能力突出，公共卫生事件冲击期效果最强。基于此，本文提出优化工具组合、实施行业区域差异化支持、完善周期适配机制等建议，为提升政策精准性、推动经济高质量增长提供实证支撑与实践指引。

Abstract: With the increasing global economic uncertainty, China’s economy is shifting to high-quality development and facing prominent structural contradictions. Traditional aggregate monetary policies are deficient in targeted regulation, and structural monetary policy has become a core tool for macroeconomic regulation. Taking the panel data of 31 provincial-level regions in China from 2000 to 2022 as research samples, this paper constructs a multidimensional econometric analysis framework and adopts multiple empirical methods to carry out research from four dimensions including tool heterogeneity, industrial transmission, regional transmission and cycle adaptation. The research indicates that structural monetary policy exerts a positive impact on regional economic growth, and the re-lending tool achieves the optimal effect. The industrial transmission presents a gradient difference of technological industry > service industry > manufacturing industry. In terms of regional transmission, the policy effect in eastern China is better than that in central and western China, and financial infrastructure as well as industrial matching degree act as the core influencing factors. Structural monetary policy has outstanding counter-cyclical regulation capacity, with the strongest effect during the COVID-19 pandemic. On this basis, this paper puts forward suggestions such as optimizing the portfolio of policy tools, implementing differentiated industrial and regional support, and improving the cycle adaptation mechanism, so as to provide empirical support and practical guidance for improving the accuracy of structural monetary policy and promoting high-quality and sustainable economic growth.