基于扎根理论的社交媒体恐育话语分析——以知乎为例

A Grounded Theory-Based Analysis of Fertility Refusal Discourse on Social Media—A Case Study of Zhihu

摘要: 中国正处于人口老龄化加速与生育率持续下行的双重背景下，育龄青年低生育意愿成为亟待深入理解的社会现象。社交媒体成为恐育话语与性别话语交锋的重要场域，网络讨论具有敏感性和对立性。本研究基于Fairclough三维批评话语分析框架，从文本、话语实践和社会实践三个层面，系统地剖析知乎平台上的恐育话语，揭示其建构逻辑与深层意识形态。本研究采用混合研究方法。质性层面，运用程序化扎根理论对文本进行三级编码；量化层面，对文本进行分词、词频统计与关键词提取。研究发现，恐育话语在语义层面聚焦于生育、女性、孩子等核心语义场，并高频关联家庭、职场和个人身体等维度，呈现大量生育负面词汇与否定性生育表述。基于三维分析框架与扎根理论，研究提炼出五大主范畴，归纳出“低生育意愿理性决策模型”。本研究对深化青年低生育意愿的理解、促进理性网络讨论具有重要意义。

Abstract: China is entering a stage of population aging accompanied by a declining birth rate, making the low fertility intentions among young people an urgent social issue. Social media platforms have become crucial venues where discourse on fertility refusal intersect with gender narratives, often marked by sensitivity and confrontation. This study employs Fairclough’s three-dimensional critical discourse analysis framework to systematically investigate fertility refusal discourse on Zhihu, examining it across the dimensions of text, discursive practice, and social practice. The study uncovers the underlying construction logic and ideologies embedded within these discourses. A mixed-methods approach is adopted, combining qualitative and quantitative techniques. Qualitatively, procedural grounded theory is applied to conduct three-level coding of the textual data. Quantitatively, methods such as word segmentation, frequency analysis, and keyword analysis. Findings reveal that fertility refusal discourse focuses on core semantic fields including reproduction, female, and children, and frequently associates with dimensions of family, workplace, and bodily experience. The corpus exhibits dense negative vocabulary and negated fertility expressions. Based on the three-dimensional analytical framework and grounded theory methodology, the study identifies five major categories and proposes a rational decision-making model of low fertility intentions. This study is significant for deepening understanding of young people’s low fertility intentions and promoting rational online discussions.