农业绿色发展的区域经济效应——基于化肥减量对农民收入的影响分析

Regional Economic Effects of Green Agricultural Development—An Analysis Based on the Impact of Chemical Fertilizer Reduction on Farmers’ Income

摘要: 化肥减量是推动农业绿色转型、平衡生态保护与农民增收的重要举措。本文基于2016~2024年中国31个省级行政区面板数据，构建双向固定效应模型，实证检验单位面积化肥施用强度对农村居民人均经营净收入的影响，并从粮食主产区、非粮食主产区视角开展异质性分析，同时完成机制检验与多方法稳健性检验。研究表明：单位面积化肥施用强度显著抑制农村居民人均经营净收入，过量施肥通过抬升生产成本、弱化农业生产效率压低农户经营收益；异质性结果显示，化肥投入在粮食主产区显著增收，在非粮食主产区作用不显著；成本抬升与生产效率下滑是化肥抑制收入的两大传导路径。各类稳健检验均证实结论稳健可靠。研究可为分产区差异化制定化肥减量政策、统筹绿色农业与农民增收提供实证参考。

Abstract: Fertilizer reduction is a key measure to boost green agricultural transformation while balancing ecological protection and farmers’ income growth. Based on panel data of 31 provincial-level regions in Chinese mainland from 2016 to 2024, this paper adopts a two-way fixed effects model to explore how fertilizer application intensity affects rural residents’ per capita net operating income, with heterogeneity grouped by major and non-major grain-producing areas, mechanism analysis and robustness checks further conducted. The results reveal that higher fertilizer intensity significantly curbs farmers’ income by raising production costs and reducing agricultural productivity. Fertilizer input significantly improves income in major grain-producing areas but has no marked influence in non-major grain regions. Cost increase and productivity decline serve as core transmission paths. All robustness tests verify the reliability of conclusions. This paper provides empirical support for differentiated fertilizer reduction policies.