农田水利设施的粮食增产效应：农业机械化的调节作用

The Effect of Farmland Water Conservancy Facilities on Grain Yield Increase: The Moderating Role of Agricultural Mechanization

摘要: 明晰农田水利设施与农业机械化的协同作用机制，是优化农业投资结构、保障国家粮食安全的关键议题。本文基于2013~2022年我国大陆31个省、自治区、直辖市面板数据，采用双向固定效应模型、分组回归等方法，实证检验农业机械化对农田水利设施粮食增产效应的调节作用。研究发现：第一，全样本下农田水利设施的直接增产效应无统计显著性；第二，农业机械化对该效应存在显著正向调节作用，仅在高农业机械化水平下，农田水利设施的增产效应才能充分释放；第三，耕地集中连片度在高机械化条件下发挥显著部分中介作用，是二者协同增产的核心传导路径。本文明确了农田水利与农业机械化协同增产的作用边界，研究结论可为我国制定差异化农业投资政策提供实证依据。

Abstract: Clarifying the synergistic mechanism between farmland water conservancy facilities and agricultural mechanization is critical to optimizing agricultural investment structure and ensuring national food security. Using panel data of 31 Chinese provinces from 2013 to 2022, this paper empirically examines the moderating effect of agricultural mechanization on the grain yield effect of farmland water conservancy facilities via two-way fixed effects model and grouped regression. The results show that: (1) The direct yield effect of farmland water conservancy facilities is statistically insignificant in the full sample; (2) Agricultural mechanization has a significant positive moderating effect, and the yield effect of water conservancy facilities is only fully released at high mechanization levels; (3) Cultivated land concentration and contiguity plays a significant partial mediating role under high mechanization, serving as the core transmission path for their synergistic yield increase. This paper defines the boundary of the synergistic effect between farmland water conservancy and agricultural mechanization, providing empirical evidence for China’s differentiated agricultural investment policy-making.