黄石夏季雷暴大风气候特征和环境参数分析

Analysis of Climatic Characteristics and Environmental Parameters of Summer Thunderstorm Gales in Huangshi

摘要: 利用2016~2024年常规观测资料、ADTD闪电定位数据、ERA5再分析资料等，采用统计分析、Morlet小波变换和环境参数对比分析等方法，对黄石地区6~8月雷暴大风的时空分布、周期性变化及关键环境条件进行分析研究。结果表明：(1) 黄石夏季雷暴大风存在显著的空间差异性和时间集中性。高发区呈“西南–东北”向带状分布于主城区及沿江地带；日变化呈典型的单峰型，高峰集中在午后至傍晚(15~19时)；7~8月为绝对高发期，占夏季总事件数的90%以上；(2) 黄石夏季雷暴大风年际间的波动显著受一个准3年周期的调制，且这种调制作用具有间歇性，在2018~2021年期间尤为活跃；(3) 黄石雷暴大风主要由热力驱动的“弱切变”型强对流所致，其典型环境为“低切变–大温差”(中低层风切变SL95 < 12 m/s，850~500 hPa温差ΔT85> 24℃)。在这种天气类型下，对流有效位能(CAPE)是区分风暴强度等级的最核心指标。当CAPE超过3200 J/kg时，发生致灾性大风的风险急剧增加。研究结果为提升黄石地区雷暴大风的监测预警能力和业务预报水平提供坚实的科学依据。

Abstract: Using conventional observational data from 2016 to 2024, ADTD lightning location data, and ERA5 reanalysis data, this study employs statistical analysis, Morlet wavelet transform, and comparative analysis of environmental parameters to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution, periodicity, and key environmental conditions of thunderstorm gales in the Huangshi region during June-August. The results show that: (1) There are significant spatial differences and temporal concentration of summer thunderstorm gales in Huangshi. The high‑incidence area exhibits a “southwest-northeast” zonal distribution across the main urban area and along the riverbanks. The diurnal variation shows a typical unimodal pattern, with the peak concentrated in the afternoon to early evening (15:00~19:00 LT). July and August are the absolute high‑incidence months, accounting for more than 90% of the total summer events. (2) The interannual fluctuation of summer thunderstorm gales in Huangshi is significantly modulated by a quasi‑3‑year period, and this modulation is intermittent, being particularly active during 2018~2021. (3) Thunderstorm gales in Huangshi are mainly caused by thermally driven “weak shear” severe convection. The typical environmental conditions are characterized by “low shear-large temperature difference” (low‑ to mid‑level wind shear SL95 < 12 m/s, and 850~500 hPa temperature difference ΔT85 > 24˚C). Under this weather type, convective available potential energy (CAPE) is the most critical indicator for distinguishing the intensity level of storms. When CAPE exceeds 3200 J/kg, the risk of damaging gales increases sharply. These findings provide a solid scientific basis for improving the monitoring, early warning, and operational forecasting capabilities of thunderstorm gales in the Huangshi region.