数字经济背景下市域新质生产力多元驱动路径研究——基于281个地级市面板数据的组态分析

Research on the Multiple Driving Paths of New Quality Productive Forces at the City Level under the Background of the Digital Economy—A Configurational Analysis Based on Panel Data from 281 Prefecture-Level Cities

摘要: 为探究不同经济条件和资源禀赋的地级市该如何在数字经济背景下因地制宜的发展具有自身特色的新质生产力，本文以中国281个地级市为样本，在TOE框架下搭建理论模型，使用NCA和fsQCA相结合的方法，分析市域新质生产力水平的提升路径。结果表明，单一因素无法单独成为市域新质生产力水平的充分条件；共存在3条驱动市域新质生产力水平的路径，具体分为上级压力和财政资源支持驱动型、人工智能和科技资源支持驱动型以及综合驱动型。而在人工智能和科技资源支持驱动型中，“数字经济指数”和“财政资源支持”对于市域新质生产力水平的提高殊途同归。研究结论为各地区因地制宜发展新质生产力提供了理论依据和实践指导。

Abstract: To explore how prefecture-level cities with diverse economic conditions and resource endowments can develop distinctive new quality productive forces in light of local conditions against the backdrop of the digital economy, this paper takes 281 prefecture-level cities in China as the research sample, constructs a theoretical model based on the TOE framework, and adopts a combined approach of Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA) and fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) to analyze the paths for upgrading the level of new quality productive forces at the municipal level. The results show that no single factor alone can serve as a sufficient condition for the improvement of new quality productive forces at the municipal level; three driving paths for such productivity are identified, specifically including the top-down pressure and fiscal resource support-driven path, the artificial intelligence and technological resource support-driven path, and the comprehensive-driven path. Notably, in the artificial intelligence and technological resource support-driven path, the digital economy index and fiscal resource support achieve the same goal through different approaches in boosting the level of new quality productive forces at the municipal level. The research conclusions provide a theoretical basis and practical guidance for all regions to develop new quality productive forces in light of local conditions.