湖北省用水结构演变及其驱动因子分析

Analysis of Evolution and Driving Factors of Water Use Structure in Hubei Province

摘要: 为探究湖北省用水结构演变特征，明确用水结构的驱动因子，基于湖北省各市(州、区) 2001~2024年水资源公报及年鉴数据，采用信息熵、洛伦兹曲线和基尼系数等方法分析湖北省各部门用水量的空间分布特征，并结合灰色关联度法定量分析不同发展阶段用水结构演变的驱动因子。结果表明：湖北省的用水总量在不断增加，其中农业用水占比居首位，但生活用水增长率最高；用水总量信息熵和均衡度整体呈现波动上升的趋势，表明各部门用水均匀，用水结构趋于平衡；结合洛伦兹曲线和基尼系数可以发现农业用水空间分布均匀，且相对稳定，生活用水空间分布较为平均，工业用水演变趋向空间集中化；灰色关联分析表明目前农业用水主导湖北省用水结构的演变。

Abstract: To elucidate the characteristics of water use structure evolution in Hubei Province and identify its underlying driving factors, this study draws on data from the water resources bulletins and statistical yearbooks of various cities in Hubei Province from 2001 to 2024. Methods such as information entropy, the Lorenz curve, and the Gini coefficient were employed to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of total water use across different sectors. Additionally, the grey correlation analysis was used to quantitatively analyze the driving factors behind the evolution of water use structure at different development stages. The results show that total water use keeps increasing, with agricultural water use accounting for the largest proportion and domestic water use presenting the fastest growth rate. Information entropy and equilibrium degree of total water use show an overall fluctuating upward trend, suggesting that sectoral water use tends to be more balanced and the water use structure is gradually optimized. Spatial analysis based on Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient indicates that agricultural water use is evenly distributed and relatively stable, and domestic water use is fairly distributed, while industrial water use is increasingly spatially concentrated. Agricultural water use plays a dominant role in the evolution of water use structure in Hubei Province.