供应链韧性视角下农业抗风险能力提升研究

Research on the Improvement of Agricultural Risk Resistance from the Perspective of Supply Chain Resilience

摘要: 全球极端气候频发、地缘贸易冲突加剧、市场波动与公共卫生风险交织，我国农业供应链持续承受多重复合型冲击，传统聚焦生产端事后补救的单一风险防控模式已难以适配现代农业安全保障需求。供应链韧性理论以系统抗冲击、快速修复、自适应迭代为核心特征，为全链条化解农业风险提供全新分析框架。本文首先梳理国内外农业供应链韧性相关研究成果，指出现有研究存在视角碎片化、量化实证不足、差异化落地路径缺失等短板；依托韧性系统理论、供应链风险管理、产业安全理论，结合农业生产自然依赖性、产品易损耗、经营主体分散等独有特征，界定农业供应链韧性与农业抗风险能力的内在逻辑，构建包含稳健性、冗余性、灵活性、协同性、创新性的农业韧性分析框架。其次，系统识别农业生产自然风险、市场波动风险、流通断链风险、主体经营风险、制度技术滞后风险五大风险类型，剖析当前农业供应链五大韧性维度同步薄弱的现实短板。在此基础上，重点剖析韧性建设过程中“韧性提升与流通效率”“短期投入成本与长期产业安全”两组核心权衡关系，从经营主体分层、农产品品类分类两个维度设计成本可控、差异化的韧性提升方案，并配套建立成本分摊、冗余管控、分类考核、数字赋能四大长效保障机制，形成全链条农业风险治理体系。研究结论可为完善农业风险防控政策、优化农产品保供体系提供理论支撑，助力夯实粮食安全底线、推进农业高质量发展。

Abstract: Against the intertwined backdrop of frequent global extreme weather, intensifying geopolitical trade conflicts, market volatility and public health risks, China’s agricultural supply chains are continuously exposed to multiple compound shocks. Conventional one-dimensional risk prevention and control models that merely focus on post-hoc remedies at the production end can no longer meet the safety guarantee demands of modern agriculture. Centered on the core attributes of resisting shocks, rapid recovery, adaptive adjustment and iterative upgrading at the system level, the theory of supply chain resilience delivers an innovative analytical framework for mitigating agricultural risks across the whole industrial chain. This paper first sorts out domestic and international research findings on agricultural supply chain resilience, and identifies three major deficiencies in existing literature: fragmented research perspectives, insufficient quantitative empirical analysis and a lack of differentiated implementation paths. Drawing on resilience system theory, supply chain risk management theory and industrial security theory, this paper takes into account the unique characteristics of agriculture including high reliance on natural conditions, perishable agricultural products and scattered business entities. It defines the internal logical relationship between agricultural supply chain resilience and agricultural risk resistance capacity, and establishes an analytical framework for agricultural resilience covering five dimensions: robustness, redundancy, flexibility, collaboration and innovation. Furthermore, this paper systematically identifies five major categories of risks facing agriculture, namely natural production risks, market fluctuation risks, circulation disruption risks, operational risks of industrial entities, and risks arising from backward institutions and technologies. It also analyzes the prominent weaknesses of China’s agricultural supply chains manifested in underperformance across all five resilience dimensions. On this basis, the paper deeply dissects two core trade-offs in resilience construction: the trade-off between resilience improvement and circulation efficiency, and the trade-off between short-term input costs and long-term industrial security. It develops cost-controllable differentiated resilience promotion schemes from two layers of classification: agricultural business entities and agricultural product categories. Four long-term supporting mechanisms including cost-sharing, redundancy management, categorized assessment and digital empowerment are proposed to form a full-chain agricultural risk governance system. The research conclusions provide theoretical support for improving agricultural risk prevention policies and optimizing the guarantee system of agricultural products, so as to consolidate the bottom line of food security and advance high-quality agricultural development.