基于企业特征的社保缴费基数夯实率分类研究——以X区为例

Classification Research on the Consolidation Rate of Social Insurance Payment Base Based on Enterprise Characteristics—A Case Study of District X

摘要: 社保缴费基数不实是我国社会保险征管体制改革面临的核心难题。本文以X区368家企业2024~2025年脱敏数据为样本，探索适配不同企业特征的差异化提升路径并模拟评估预期效果。研究采用描述性统计与K-means聚类算法，构建“行业 × 规模 × 盈利能力”三维企业分类画像体系，识别社保缴费低夯实率企业及其主要类型。研究发现，X区低夯实率企业占比41.3%，全区夯实率均值仅为74.2%，建筑业、制造业、批发零售业小微企业是社保缴费不合规的主要群体。基于企业行为理论与分类治理逻辑，本文针对不同特征企业构建四类差异化干预方案：对A型“有意违规型”企业强化稽查监管与信用联动约束；对B型“无力合规型”企业推行分阶段缓缴过渡与征管容错激励；对C型“波动型”企业实施动态监测与申报流程优化；对D型“标杆型”企业落实正向荣誉激励与合规经验推广。依托面板固定效应模型开展政策模拟与反事实推断，模拟结果表明，实施差异化分类治理后，全区社保缴费基数夯实率由74.2%提升至80.1%，净提升5.9个百分点；其中A型企业夯实率提升19.6个百分点，B型企业提升11.3个百分点，C型企业小幅改善0.8个百分点。经测算，政策投入与社保基金增收的成本收益比约为11.7:1 (保守估计)，投入产出效益显著，具备较强的经济可行性与区域推广价值。

Abstract: Inaccurate social insurance payment bases are a core bottleneck in China’s social insurance collection reform. This paper uses anonymized data from 368 companies in District X from 2024 to 2025 as a sample to explore differentiated improvement paths adapted to different company characteristics and simulate and evaluate the expected effects. Through descriptive statistics and K-means clustering, we construct a three-dimensional classification system by industry, scale, and profitability to identify enterprises with low social security contribution rates and their main types. Findings show that 41.3% of enterprises have low consolidation rates, with a district average of only 74.2%. Small and micro enterprises in construction, manufacturing, and wholesale/retail are the main non-compliant groups. Based on corporate behavior theory and classification governance logic, we constructs four differentiated intervention programs for enterprises with different characteristics: Type A (“intentional violators”) face intensified inspections and credit penalties; Type B (“unable to comply”) receive phased deferment and regulatory tolerance; Type C (“fluctuating”) get dynamic monitoring and streamlined filing; Type D (“benchmark”) receive honor incentives and best-practice promotion. Based on a panel fixed effects model, policy simulation and counterfactual inference were conducted. The simulation results show that after implementing differentiated classification governance, the social security contribution base consolidation rate in the entire region increased from 74.2% to 80.1%, a net increase of 5.9 percentage points. Among them, the consolidation rate of type A enterprises increased by 19.6 percentage points, type B enterprises by 11.3 percentage points, and type C enterprises saw a slight improvement of 0.8 percentage points. Calculations show that the cost-benefit ratio of policy input to increased social security fund revenue is approximately 11.7:1 (conservative estimate), demonstrating significant input-output benefits and strong economic feasibility and regional promotion value.