2025年安丘市创纪录极端气候综合诊断与 多领域影响评价

Comprehensive Diagnosis of Record-Breaking Extreme Climate and Multi-Sectoral Impact Assessment in Anqiu City, 2025

摘要: 为科学诊断全球变暖背景下区域极端气候年的异常特征与综合影响，基于安丘市国家基本气象站及18处区域考核站点2025年气象观测数据，采用气候距平法、极值统计法、历史序列排位法、距平标准差量化等方法，系统诊断气温、降水、日照等核心气象要素的年、季、月尺度异常，识别主要极端天气气候事件并开展历史极值定位与概率评估，量化其对农业、能源、交通的综合影响。结果表明：2025年为安丘市有气象纪录以来极端性最强的气候年份之一，年平均气温14.7℃，较常年偏高1.6℃，距平达4.2位标准差，创历史新高；年降水量760.1 mm，较常年偏多15.2%，时空分布极不均，秋汛异常突出且旱涝急转显著；年日照时数2477.1 h，较常年偏多153.4 h，10月日照创历史同期最低。全年发生6类破纪录极端事件，高温、秋汛、寡照等多项指标达超50年一遇水平，农业气象年景为较差，对能源保供、交通安全形成多重冲击。本研究为区域极端气候应对、防灾减灾与产业布局优化提供实证依据。

Abstract: To scientifically diagnose the anomalous characteristics and comprehensive impacts of a record-breaking extreme climate year under global warming, this study was based on 2025 meteorological observation data from the Anqiu National Basic Meteorological Station and 18 regional assessment stations. Methods including climate anomaly analysis, extreme value statistics, historical sequence ranking, and anomaly standard deviation quantification were adopted to systematically diagnose the annual, seasonal, and monthly anomalies of key meteorological elements such as air temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration. Major extreme weather and climate events were identified, and historical extreme value positioning and probability assessment were carried out to quantify the comprehensive impacts on agriculture, energy, and transportation. The results showed that 2025 was one of the most extreme climate years since meteorological records began in Anqiu. The annual mean temperature was 14.7˚C, 1.6˚C higher than the climatological normal, with an anomaly of 4.2 standard deviations, setting a new historical record. The annual precipitation was 760.1 mm, 15.2% above the climatological normal, with extremely uneven spatial and temporal distribution, prominent autumn floods, and pronounced drought-flood abrupt alternation. The annual sunshine duration was 2477.1 hours, 153.4 hours more than the climatological normal, and the sunshine duration in October reached the lowest level on record for the same period in history. Six types of record-breaking extreme events occurred throughout the year, and multiple indicators such as high temperature, autumn floods, and extremely low sunshine reached the once-in-more-than-50-year return level. The agricultural meteorological year was evaluated as poor, exerting multiple impacts on energy supply and traffic safety. This study provides an empirical basis for regional extreme climate response, disaster prevention and mitigation, and industrial layout optimization.