中国胃癌疾病负担的分化轨迹：1990~2021年变化趋势及预测到2035年

The Divergent Trajectory of Gastric Cancer Disease Burden in China: Trends from 1990 to 2021 and Projections through 2035

摘要: 目的：研究1990~2021年中国胃癌疾病负担变化趋势，并预测2022~2035年的未来走向。方法：基于GBD 2021数据库，提取1990~2021年中国胃癌ASIR、ASPR、ASMR及ASDR数据，探究中国胃癌总体及性别分层的变化趋势，并采用ARIMA模型预测2022~2035年的变化。结果：1990~2021年，中国胃癌ASIR、ASPR、ASMR和ASDR总体均呈下降趋势，且男性各指标均高于女性。2021年，中国胃癌ASIR、ASPR、ASMR和ASDR均呈下降趋势，但性别差异呈扩大趋势。ARIMA模型预测显示，2022~2035年中国胃癌疾病负担总体仍将持续下降，其中死亡率和DALY率下降更为明显。结论：1990~2021年中国胃癌疾病负担呈明显下降趋势，但总体负担仍显著较高，男性人群尤为突出。未来中国胃癌疾病负担预计仍将进一步减轻，但至2035年仍将维持较高水平。

Abstract: Objective: To investigate the changing trends in the gastric cancer disease burden in China from 1990 to 2021 and project future trajectories from 2022 to 2035. Methods: Based on the GBD 2021 database, data on age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR) for gastric cancer in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted. The overall and sex-specific trends were analyzed, and the ARIMA model was used to predict changes from 2022 to 2035. Results: From 1990 to 2021, the ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR of gastric cancer in China generally showed declining trends, with all rates consistently higher in males than in females. In 2021, the ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR of gastric cancer in China all continued to decline, and the sex gap widened. ARIMA projections indicate that from 2022 to 2035, the overall gastric cancer disease burden in China will continue to decrease, with more pronounced declines in mortality rate and DALY rate. Conclusions: From 1990 to 2021, the gastric cancer disease burden in China showed a significant downward trend; however, the overall burden remains substantially high, particularly among the male population. The future gastric cancer burden in China is expected to further decrease, but it is likely to remain at a relatively high level through 2035.