融合多源探测资料的贵阳机场低空风切变识别与预报应用研究

Research on the Application of Low Altitude Wind Shear Identification and Forecasting at Guiyang Airport by Integrating Multi Source Detection Data

摘要: 低空风切变严重威胁飞行安全。文章利用欧洲中心ERA5 0.25˚ × 0.25˚逐小时再分析资料、贵阳机场2021年12月~2026年4月话音方式航空器空中报告、自观资料、天气雷达资料、风廓线雷达资料及激光测风雷达资料，对贵阳机场锋面、雷暴外流、动量下传、逆温等4种类型的风切变个例展开分析，探讨监测识别和资料应用。结果表明：冬末春初为低空风切变高发时段，激光雷达对锋面型风切变有约30min预警时效，自观和风廓线雷达对各型风切变的预警修订与解除有重要参考价值。构建“数值预报早期识别–天气雷达与地面自观短临修订–激光雷达临近预警–风廓线雷达全程监测”的递进式预报预警思路，有助于提升风切变的识别与预警。

Abstract: Low altitude wind shear poses a serious threat to flight safety. The article uses hourly reanalysis data of ERA5 0.25˚ × 0.25˚ from the European Center, aerial reports of voice based aircraft at Guiyang Airport from December 2021 to April 2022, observational data, weather radar data, wind profile radar data, and laser wind radar data to analyze four types of wind shear cases at Guiyang Airport, including frontal, thunderstorm outflow, momentum transfer, and inversion, and explore monitoring identification and data application. The results indicate that the late winter and early spring are high incidence periods for low altitude wind shear. Lidar has a warning time of about 30 minutes for frontal wind shear, and self observation and wind profile radar have important reference value for revising and lifting warnings for various types of wind shear. Constructing a progressive forecasting and early warning approach of “early identification of numerical forecasts-short-term revision of weather radar and ground observation-laser radar proximity warning-full monitoring of wind profile radar” can help improve the identification and early warning of wind shear.