2018~2025年石家庄西部县市区气象条件对森林火灾影响

The Impact of Meteorological Conditions on Forest Fires in Western Counties of Shijiazhuang from 2018 to 2025

摘要: 利用2018~2025年石家庄西部县区(井陉、元氏、赞皇、行唐、平山等)地面气象观测数据及同期森林火灾统计资料，分析了该区域气温、相对湿度、风速等气象要素的时空变化特征，量化了气象条件与森林火灾发生的关系。结果表明：(1) 2018~2025年石家庄西部县区气温波动上升、湿度持续偏低，防火关键期高温、低湿、大风特征逐年加剧；气象条件区域差异明显，井陉、平山高温干旱突出，赞皇风速偏大，元氏湿度相对较好。(2) 森林火灾集中发生在平山、井陉、赞皇，春季为高发时段；火灾多由电线打火、野外用火等人为因素引发，人为火源是防控重点。(3) 火灾日气象条件表现为气温偏高、湿度偏低、风速偏大，春季为高发期，应加强该时段的火险监测与预警。

Abstract: Using ground meteorological observation data from western counties of Shijiazhuang (Jingxing, Yuanshi, Zanhuang, Xingtang, Pingshan, etc.) and synchronous forest fire statistical records during 2018-2025, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal variation patterns of meteorological factors including air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed, and quantifies the relationship between meteorological conditions and forest fire occurrences. The results are shown as follows: (1) From 2018 to 2025, the temperature of western Shijiazhuang counties rose in a fluctuating manner with continuously low humidity. The adverse combination of high temperature, low humidity and strong wind during the critical fire prevention period has worsened year by year. Distinct spatial discrepancies exist in meteorological conditions: Jingxing and Pingshan are plagued by severe high temperature and drought; Zanhuang features comparatively high wind speeds; Yuanshi has relatively preferable humidity conditions. (2) Forest fires are predominantly distributed in Pingshan, Jingxing and Zanhuang, with spring being the peak fire occurrence season. Most fires are induced by human activities such as power line arcing and unauthorized open burning, hence anthropogenic fire sources are the core focus of fire prevention and control. (3) Fire days are commonly accompanied by higher-than-normal temperature, lower-than-normal humidity and elevated wind speed. As spring witnesses the highest fire frequency, enhanced fire danger monitoring and early warning systems are required for this seasonal window.