低空经济政策对城市跨境电商发展的影响研究——基于双重差分法的实证分析

Research on the Impact of Low-Altitude Economy Policy on Urban Cross-Border E-Commerce Development—Empirical Analysis Based on the Difference-in-Differences Method

摘要: 在加快发展新质生产力的关键节点，探讨低空经济政策赋能跨境电商高质量发展具有重要现实意义。本文基于2015~2023年中国地级及以上城市面板数据，将低空经济政策实施视为准自然实验，运用多期双重差分法初步评估其影响及作用机理。研究发现，低空经济政策显著提升了城市跨境电商发展水平，结论在采用人口规模加权回归、历史工具变量法等检验后依然成立。机制检验发现，政策通过物流效率提升、数字基础设施普及与科技产业集聚三重路径产生叠加效应。动态效应显示，政策红利释放具有一定的时滞特征，反映出低空基础设施建设与适航规则磨合需要一定的传导周期。异质性分析证实，该政策对内陆城市具有强劲的追赶效应，且在科技基础稳固或数智化基础完善的城市赋能更显著。本文拓展了空间治理与数字贸易交叉领域的理论边界，为政府优化低空基建布局、助力跨境贸易换道超车提供了经验证据与政策启示。

Abstract: At the critical juncture of accelerating the development of new quality productive forces, exploring how low-altitude economy policies empower high-quality cross-border e-commerce is of significant practical and theoretical importance. Based on panel data of Chinese prefecture-level and above cities from 2015 to 2023, this study treats the implementation of low-altitude economy policies as a quasi-natural experiment and applies a multi-period DID method to preliminarily assess its impacts. Findings reveal that low-altitude economy policies have significantly enhanced the level of urban cross-border e-commerce development, a conclusion remaining robust after tests including population-weighted regression and the historical instrumental variable method. Mechanism analysis indicates that the policy generates a comprehensive overlapping effect through the triple paths of logistics efficiency improvement, digital infrastructure expansion, and technology industry agglomeration. Dynamic analysis suggests that the release of policy dividends exhibits a certain time-lag, reflecting that the early stages of infrastructure construction and the adaptation of airworthiness rules require a necessary transmission period. Heterogeneity results show that the policy exerts a strong catch-up effect for inland cities and demonstrates more significant empowerment in cities with solid technological foundations or well-developed digital intelligence infrastructure. This study expands theoretical boundaries at the intersection of spatial governance and digital trade, providing empirical evidence and insights for optimizing low-altitude infrastructure and promoting the high-quality upgrading of cross-border trade.