工作面底板突水危险性评价研究综述

A Review of Research on Risk Assessment of Water Inrush from Coal Mine Working Face Floor

摘要: 我国煤矿开采逐步向深部拓展，底板突水灾害防控已成为决定矿井安全生产的关键问题。传统底板突水危险性评价方法多围绕隔水层厚度、水压等单一因素开展静态分析，既无法体现采动过程中岩层阻水性能的动态劣化规律，也难以揭示其与应力场、渗流场的耦合作用机制。文章系统梳理了底板突水机理、岩层阻水性能表征、采动效应影响规律、危险性评价方法四个领域的研究进展。现有研究已完成从单一因素经验判断到多场耦合数值模拟、微震监测与机器学习结合的综合评价体系的转变，但岩层阻水性能的定量表征尚未形成统一标准，采动效应与阻水性能的动态耦合机制亦未完全明确。后续研究可重点构建“阻水性能–采动损伤–渗流演化”一体化动态评价模型，结合智能化监测预警技术，进一步提高底板突水危险性评价的精度与工程适用性。

Abstract: As China’s coal mining gradually extends to deeper depths, the prevention and control of water inrush from the floor has become a key issue determining safe mine production. Traditional risk assessment methods for floor water inrush mostly rely on static analyses focusing on single factors such as aquiclude thickness and water pressure. These methods fail to reflect the dynamic deterioration of water-resisting properties of rock strata during mining and can hardly reveal the coupled mechanism with the stress field and seepage field. This paper systematically reviews the existing research in four areas: mechanism of floor water inrush, characterization of water-resisting performance of rock strata, influence of mining-induced effects, and risk assessment methods. Current studies have evolved from empirical judgment based on single factors to a comprehensive assessment system involving multi-field coupled numerical simulation, microseismic monitoring, and machine learning. However, a unified standard for quantitative characterization of rock water-resisting performance has not been established, and the dynamic coupling mechanism between mining-induced effects and water-resisting performance remains incompletely clarified. Future research should focus on establishing an integrated dynamic assessment model of “water-resisting performance, mining-induced damage, seepage evolution”. Combined with intelligent monitoring and early-warning technologies, this will further improve the accuracy and engineering applicability of risk assessment for coal floor water inrush.