流动人口“就地养老”意愿与流入地公共服务供给匹配研究

Research on the Matching of “Local Elderly Care” Preferences of Migrant Population with Public Service Supply in Their Inflow Areas

摘要: 在人口老龄化与新型城镇化双重叠加的背景下，我国流动老年人口规模已达3327万，且年均增长率达6.6%。流动老人因照顾孙辈、异地养老、家属随迁等原因进入城市，其“就地养老”意愿持续上升，然而流入地公共服务供给体系却难以有效回应这一需求。本研究从“意愿–供给–匹配”的分析框架出发，结合法学视角，系统考察流动人口就地养老意愿的形成特征与流入地公共服务供给的结构性困境，识别二者之间的四重错配，并提出针对性的政策建议。研究发现，流动老人就地养老意愿受个体、家庭和城市层面因素的共同影响，其中社会保障跨地区可携带性是关键变量；流入地公共服务供给在资源配置公平性、供给结构、制度衔接和区域协同等方面均存在明显不足；二者之间存在数量错配、结构错配、制度错配和心理错配四重困境。破解这些错配，需推动“钱随人走”财政机制改革、优化公共服务供给结构、深化社会保障跨区域衔接、提升服务可及性与社会融入支持，并在法治层面推动流动老人社会保障权的制度化保障。

Abstract: In the context of the coexistence of population aging and new urbanization, the scale of mobile elderly population in China has reached 33.27 million, with an average annual growth rate of 6.6%. The mobile elderly enter cities for reasons such as taking care of grandchildren, living in different places, and family members moving along. Their desire for “local elderly care” has been continuously increasing. However, the public service supply system in the inflow areas is unable to effectively respond to this demand. This study, based on the analytical framework of “willingness-supply-matching”, combined with a legal perspective, systematically examines the formation characteristics of the willingness of mobile population to live locally and the structural dilemmas of public service supply in the inflow areas, identifies four types of mismatches between the two, and proposes targeted policy recommendations. The research finds that the willingness of mobile elderly to live locally is influenced by factors at the individual, family, and urban levels, among which the cross-regional portability of social security is a key variable; the public service supply in the inflow areas has obvious deficiencies in resource allocation fairness, supply structure, institutional connection, and regional coordination; there are four types of dilemmas between the two: quantity mismatch, structural mismatch, institutional mismatch, and psychological mismatch. To solve these mismatches, it is necessary to promote the reform of the “money following people” fiscal mechanism, optimize the public service supply structure, deepen the cross-regional connection of social security, improve service accessibility and social integration support, and promote the institutionalization guarantee of the social security rights of mobile elderly at the legal level.