低生育率与深度老龄化叠加下养老保障三支柱资金流转与待遇衔接的协同优化研究

Research on the Collaborative Optimization of Capital Circulation and Benefit Connection of the Three Pillars of Pension Security under the Superposition of Low Fertility Rate and Deep Population Aging

摘要: 低生育率与深度老龄化双重叠加，对我国养老保障体系的可持续性、公平性和有效性带来严峻冲击，当前养老保障三支柱呈现“一柱独大、二三支柱孱弱”的结构失衡问题，难以应对双重人口结构变革的挑战。本文采用文献研究法、统计分析法和比较研究法，聚焦“三支柱账户衔接与税优额度结转”这一关键协同机制，系统分析低生育率与深度老龄化的叠加特征及其对养老保障三支柱的影响机制，剖析当前我国养老保障三支柱协同发展中存在的核心困境，结合国际经验与我国实际，从筹资机制、结构协同、服务配套、制度保障四个维度，提出针对性的协同优化路径，为构建可持续、公平、多元的养老保障体系提供理论支撑与实践参考，助力应对双重人口压力、实现积极老龄化目标。

Abstract: The superposition of low fertility rate and deep aging poses a severe impact on the sustainability, fairness and effectiveness of China’s pension security system. At present, the three pillars of pension security face a structural imbalance characterized by “the first pillar dominating alone while the second and third pillars remain weak”, making it difficult to cope with the challenges brought by the dual changes in population structure. Adopting the methods of literature research, statistical analysis and comparative research, this paper focuses on the key collaborative mechanism of “account connection and tax preference quota carry-forward among the three pillars”. It systematically analyzes the overlapping characteristics of low fertility rate and deep aging as well as their influencing mechanism on the three pillars of pension security, and explores the core dilemmas existing in the coordinated development of China’s current three-pillar pension security system. Combining international experience with China’s national conditions, this paper puts forward targeted collaborative optimization paths from four dimensions: financing mechanism, structural coordination, supporting services and institutional guarantee. It aims to provide theoretical support and practical reference for constructing a sustainable, fair and diversified pension security system, help respond to the dual population pressure and achieve the goal of active aging.