基于AHP的地热开发模式评价指标体系构建及权重分析

Construction of Evaluation Index System and Weight Analysis for Geothermal Development Models Based on AHP

摘要: 为提高地热开发模式选择的科学性，研究旨在构建一套全面、可量化的地热开发模式评价指标体系。研究采用层次分析法(AHP)，搭建包含目标层、准则层、指标层的三层评价框架，筛选18项核心指标构建评价体系，采用软件模拟5位行业专家构建判断矩阵，经矩阵集成与一致性检验，完成各层级指标权重赋值与定量分析。结果表明，项目投资(26.94%)、地质工程风险(14.68%)、政策支持力度(8.57%)、经济成本风险(8.07%)、投资回收期(7.77%)是地热开发决策的关键影响因素，模式选择应关注高权重指标以提高开发模式综合得分。本文构建的评价体系可为地热项目立项决策、方案优化及风险管控提供量化支撑，对推动地热产业高质量发展、助力“双碳”目标实现具有理论价值与实践意义。

Abstract: To enhance the scientific basis for selecting geothermal development models, this study aims to establish a comprehensive and quantifiable evaluation indicator system. Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a three-tier evaluation framework comprising objective, criterion, and indicator layers was constructed. Eighteen core indicators were selected to form the evaluation system. Judgment matrices were simulated using software based on input from five industry experts. Through matrix integration and consistency testing, weights were assigned to indicators at each level, enabling quantitative analysis. Results show that project investment (26.94%), geological engineering risk (14.68%), policy support intensity (8.57%), economic cost risk (8.07%), and payback period (7.77%) are key influencing factors in geothermal development decisions. Model selection should prioritize high-weight indicators to improve overall performance scores. The developed evaluation system provides quantitative support for project initiation, scheme optimization, and risk management, offering both theoretical value and practical significance for promoting high-quality development of the geothermal industry and advancing the achievement of “dual carbon” goals.