Dagum基尼系数在省域碳排放空间差异分析中的应用

Application of Dagum Gini Coefficient in Spatial Difference Analysis of Provincial Carbon Emissions

摘要: 为揭示中国区域碳排放的空间分布规律与结构特征，本文基于2022年中国30个地区的能源消费碳排放数据，采用Dagum基尼系数分析了碳排放总量的空间差异及其来源，并进一步对比了不同省份和区域的碳排放结构差异。研究结果表明：(1) 中国30个省份碳排放总量的总体基尼系数为0.3424，表明区域碳排放存在一定空间差异但未出现极端悬殊；(2) Dagum分解显示，超变密度贡献占比65.9%，是空间差异的主要来源，其次是区域内差异(19.7%)和区域间净差异(14.5%)，说明各区域内部均同时存在高、低排放省份，区域整体间差距相对有限，区域内差异也形成一定补充影响；(3) 五大区域碳排放规模与内部均衡性分化明显，东南地区排放总量最高，西南地区省际排放最为均衡，东北、西北区域内部排放差距较大；(4) 从排放结构来看，全国碳排放以煤炭为绝对主体，占比77%；区域能源与产业结构不同，使得排放结构呈现显著分异：华北、西北地区高度依赖煤炭，东北地区煤炭与石油排放双重突出，东南地区石油消费相关排放占比最高，西南地区工艺过程碳排放特征明显，且同一区域内不同省份的排放结构也存在较大差别。基于以上结论，本文结合各区域发展禀赋与排放特点，从全国统筹管控、分区精准减排等方面提出差异化政策建议，为我国区域协同推进碳减排、实现双碳目标提供参考依据。

Abstract: In order to reveal the spatial distribution and structural characteristics of China’s regional carbon emissions, based on the data of energy consumption carbon emissions of 30 provincial-level administrative regions in China in 2022, this paper uses Dagum Gini coefficient to analyze the spatial differences and sources of total carbon emissions, and further compares the structural differences of carbon emissions in different provinces and regions. The results show that : (1) The overall Gini coefficient of total carbon emissions in 30 provinces of China is 0.3424, indicating that there is a certain spatial difference in regional carbon emissions but no extreme disparity; (2) Dagum decomposition shows that the contribution of hypervariable density accounts for 65.9%, which is the main source of spatial differences, followed by intra-regional differences (19.7%) and inter-regional net differences (14.5%), indicating that there are high and low emission provinces in each region at the same time. The gap between regions is relatively limited, and intra-regional differences also form a certain complementary impact. (3) The scale and internal balance of carbon emissions in the five major regions are obviously differentiated. The total emissions in the southeast region are the highest, the inter-provincial emissions in the southwest region are the most balanced, and the internal emissions in the northeast and northwest regions are quite different. (4) From the perspective of emission structure, coal is the absolute main body of national carbon emissions, accounting for 77%; the difference of energy and industrial structure in the region makes the emission structure show significant differentiation: North China and Northwest China are highly dependent on coal, coal and oil emissions in Northeast China are prominent, oil consumption-related emissions in Southeast China account for the highest proportion, and the carbon emission characteristics of the process in Southwest China are obvious, and the emission structure of different provinces in the same region is also quite different. Based on the above conclusions, this paper combines the development endowments and emission characteristics of each region, and puts forward differentiated policy recommendations from the aspects of national overall management and control, regional precise emission reduction, etc., so as to provide a reference for China’s regional coordination to promote carbon emission reduction and achieve dual carbon targets.