“双碳”目标下农业碳排放强度对农户种植结构的影响

The Impact of Agricultural Carbon Emission Intensity on Farmers’ Planting Structure under the “Dual Carbon” Goal

摘要: 农业碳排放强度已成为约束农户种植决策的核心因素，林业碳汇可缓冲减排压力、引导农林结构低碳调整。本文采用2012~2022年省级面板数据匹配农户调研样本，构建基准回归、交互调节、分组回归与门槛模型，从林地面积占比、林业产值占比双维度检验林业经营的调节效应；通过区域、粮食产区虚拟变量交互项 + 分组回归双重识别异质性，测算多重门槛阈值。根据本文实证结果表明：1. 2012~2022年全国农业碳排放强度呈逐年下降趋势，年均降幅达5.52%，东部、中部、西部以及粮食主产区、非主产区之间存在显著差异；2. 农户种植“趋粮化(60%)”与“非粮化(40%)”并存，非粮化持续向林果碳汇作物倾斜；3. 碳排放强度通过成本约束、环境规制、技术进步、要素流转四条路径推动非粮化，林业经营存在显著负向缓冲调节，高林业省份碳强度对种植结构的冲击大幅弱化；4. 东部、非粮食主产区农户对碳约束更敏感，林地经营占比跨过18.72%门槛后，碳汇缓冲效应充分释放。基于结论提出差异化区域减排、完善林权流转、推广农林绿色技术、发展碳汇市场四类政策。

Abstract: Agricultural carbon emission intensity has become a core constraint on farmers’ planting decisions, and forestry carbon sinks can ease emission reduction pressure and drive low-carbon adjustment of agriculture-forestry structure. Based on 2012~2022 provincial panel data and farmer surveys, this paper establishes benchmark regression, interaction adjustment, grouped regression and threshold models to test the moderating effect of forestry operation via forest land ratio and forestry output value ratio. Dummy variable interaction and grouped regression are combined to identify regional and grain production heterogeneity, and multiple threshold values are estimated. Empirical results: First, China’s agricultural carbon emission intensity declined year by year from 2012 to 2022, with an average annual decrease of 5.52%, and significant gaps exist across eastern, central, western regions as well as major and non-major grain-producing areas. Second, 60% of farmers focus on grain planting while 40% pursue non-grain crops, mostly shifting to carbon-sink fruit forests. Third, carbon intensity boosts non-grain production through cost constraints, environmental regulation, technological progress and land/forest tenure transfer; forestry operation significantly weakens this impact. Fourth, farmers in eastern and non-major grain areas respond more strongly to carbon constraints, and forest carbon sink buffer becomes prominent when forest land ratio exceeds 18.72%. Targeted policies covering regional differentiated emission reduction, forest tenure transfer, green technology promotion and carbon sink market construction are proposed.