数字化发展水平与中国制造业上市企业出口韧性的关系研究

A Study on the Relationship between Digital Development Level and Export Resilience of Chinese Manufacturing Listed Enterprises

摘要: 在全球数字经济快速发展、国际贸易环境不确定性上升的背景下，外部冲击给企业出口活动带来了持续考验。企业在冲击中维持出口稳定并实现恢复的能力，即出口韧性，已成为外贸高质量发展的重要议题。本文以2015~2024年中国A股制造业上市公司为研究对象，基于上市公司年报文本构建企业数字化发展水平指标，并采用面板回归模型考察数字化发展水平与企业出口韧性之间的关系。研究发现，数字化发展水平与企业出口韧性之间存在显著正向关系；在替换被解释变量、替换核心解释变量以及剔除极端冲击年份后，结论总体保持一致。异质性分析表明，数字化发展与资本和技术密集型企业、非国有企业、东部地区企业以及大型企业出口韧性的正向关联更为明显。进一步研究发现，企业吸收能力在数字化发展与出口韧性的关系中发挥正向调节作用，说明企业只有具备较强的知识获取、整合和转化能力，才能更充分地将数字化优势转化为出口抗风险能力。本文从微观企业层面丰富了数字化发展与出口韧性的相关研究，也为企业推进数字化转型和政府制定差异化外贸支持政策提供了经验参考。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of rapid digital economic development and rising uncertainty in the international trade environment, external shocks have posed continuous challenges to corporate exports. Export resilience, namely a firm’s ability to maintain export stability and recover from shocks, has become an important issue for high-quality foreign trade development. Based on Chinese A-share manufacturing listed companies from 2015 to 2024, this paper constructs a firm-level digital development index using annual report text analysis and examines the relationship between digital development and export resilience through panel regression models. The results show that digital development is positively associated with export resilience. The conclusion remains generally consistent after replacing the dependent variable, replacing the core explanatory variable, and excluding years with extreme shocks. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the positive association is more pronounced among capital- and technology-intensive firms, non-state-owned firms, firms in eastern China, and large firms. Further analysis shows that absorptive capacity positively moderates the relationship between digital development and export resilience, suggesting that firms can more effectively transform digital advantages into export risk-resistance capacity when they possess stronger abilities of knowledge acquisition, integration, and transformation. This study enriches micro-level empirical research on digital development and export resilience and provides empirical references for corporate digital transformation and differentiated foreign trade support policies.