基于SEIR-INV模型的季节性流感药品库存优化研究

Inventory Optimization of Seasonal Influenza Drugs Based on the SEIR-INV Model

摘要: 针对乡村振兴背景下村卫生室季节性流感药品供应保障的难题，本文在综合考虑需求波动与药品有效期的基础上，研究如何制定成本最低、服务可靠的动态库存策略，以提升农村基层医疗卫生服务韧性。以奥司他韦为研究对象，构建集预测与优化于一体的决策模型。利用SEIR传染病动力学模型预测不同规模村庄的流感药品动态需求，建立考虑药品有效期的SEIR-INV库存模型。该模型以总成本最小化为目标，设置服务水平约束，采用遗传算法求解最优订货点与订货量。数值实验结果表明，模型能够为三类典型村庄生成差异化的最优库存策略，本文优化策略可稳定维持高服务水平，并大幅降低成本，实现了服务保障、有效期管控与库存成本的协同优化。敏感性分析显示，就诊率与处方率是影响最优策略的关键参数，参数变化会带来订货决策与总成本的明显波动。本文提出的集成模型能够有效应对村卫生室药品需求的季节性波动，在保障供应水平和药品有效期的同时实现成本管控，为完善农村药品供应保障体系提供了科学的决策依据。

Abstract: Addressing the challenge of ensuring the supply of seasonal influenza drugs to village clinics under the context of rural revitalization, this paper, considering both demand fluctuations and drug shelf-life, explores how to develop a dynamic inventory strategy that minimizes costs and ensures reliable service, thereby enhancing the resilience of rural primary healthcare services. Using oseltamivir as a case study, a decision-making model integrating prediction and optimization is constructed. The SEIR epidemic model predicts dynamic drug demand in villages of different scales, and a SEIR-INV inventory model with drug validity constraints is established. The genetic algorithm solves the optimal reorder point and quantity to minimize total cost under service level constraints, achieving synergistic optimization of service assurance, shelf-life control, and inventory costs. Sensitivity analysis shows that the consultation rate and prescription rate are key parameters affecting the optimal strategy, and changes in these parameters lead to significant fluctuations in ordering decisions and total costs. The ensemble model proposed in this paper can effectively address the seasonal fluctuations in drug demand in village clinics, achieving cost control while ensuring supply levels and drug shelf-life, thus providing a scientific basis for improving the rural drug supply guarantee system.