基于InVEST模型的阿拉尔市碳储量时空演变分析

Spatiotemporal Evolution Analysis of Carbon Storage in Alaer City Based on the InVEST Model

摘要: 针对多维度土地利用变化对生态系统碳储量的影响，论文基于2008~2023年新疆阿拉尔市土地利用数据，利用InVEST模型估算碳储量与分析其空间分布特征和土地利用变化对碳储量变化的影响。结果表明：新疆阿拉尔市土地利用类型以未利用土地(占比47.73%)和耕地(占比36.49%)为主；近15年来，新疆阿拉尔市碳储量整体呈现上升后小幅下降趋势，共增加了12.81%，耕地、未利用土地和林地转化是新疆阿拉尔市碳储量时空演变的主要贡献者。林地面积增加是推动区域碳储量提升的关键驱动因子，地形位指数0.61~0.63区间为新疆阿拉尔市碳固定潜力高值区。研究结果可为干旱区土地利用空间优化及碳汇功能管理提供科学支撑。

Abstract: This study investigates the impact of multidimensional land use changes on ecosystem carbon storage by analyzing land use data from Alaer City, Xinjiang, spanning 2008~2023. Using the InVEST model, it estimates carbon storage and its spatial distribution characteristics, and examines how land use changes affect carbon storage dynamics. Results show that land use in Alaer City is dominated by unused land (47.73%) and cropland (36.49%). Over the past 15 years, total carbon storage has generally increased first and then slightly declined, with a net increase of 12.81%. The transformation among cropland, unused land, and forestland has been the primary driver of spatiotemporal changes in carbon storage. Expansion of forest areas is the key factor driving regional carbon storage increases, while areas with terrain position indices between 0.61 and 0.63 exhibit high carbon sequestration potential. These findings provide scientific support for optimizing land use patterns and managing carbon sink functions in arid regions.