双碳目标下电商发展对城市生态效率的影响效应研究

Research on the Effect of E-Commerce Development on Urban Eco-Efficiency under the Dual Carbon Targets

摘要: 在双碳目标深度推进与数字经济和实体经济深度融合的时代背景下，城市作为绿色低碳发展的核心场域，破解经济增长与生态保护的两难困境，已成为当前学术与政策领域的核心议题。电子商务作为数字经济最具普惠性的核心业态，其对城市生态效率的影响效应与作用逻辑尚未形成一致性共识，相关因果识别、传导机制与异质性特征的系统性分析仍有待深化。本文基于2014~2023年中国省级面板数据，构建双向固定效应模型与中介效应模型，实证检验电商发展对城市生态效率的影响效应、传导机制与异质性特征。研究发现，电商发展水平对城市生态效率具有显著的正向驱动效应，该结论经多重稳健性检验后依然成立；绿色技术创新在二者关系中发挥部分中介作用，是电商发展赋能城市生态效率提升的核心传导路径；该效应存在显著的城市异质性，仅在高生态环境质量、高社会消费水平城市中作用显著。本文研究丰富了数字经济与生态效率相关领域的研究成果，为双碳目标下数字经济赋能城市绿色高质量发展提供了经验证据与决策参考。

Abstract: In the context of the in-depth advancement of the Dual Carbon Targets and the deep integration of the digital economy and the real economy, cities, as the core arena for green and low-carbon development, addressing the dilemma between economic growth and ecological protection has become a core topic in the current academic and policy fields. As the most inclusive core sector of the digital economy, no consistent academic consensus has been reached on the impact effect and action logic of e-commerce on urban eco-efficiency, and the systematic analysis of relevant causal identification, transmission mechanism and heterogeneous characteristics remains to be deepened. Based on the panel data of China’s prefecture-level cities from 2014 to 2023, this paper constructs a two-way fixed effects model and a mediation effect model to empirically examine the impact effect, transmission mechanism and heterogeneous characteristics of e-commerce development on urban eco-efficiency. The study finds that the level of e-commerce development has a significant positive driving effect on urban eco-efficiency, and this conclusion still holds after multiple robustness tests; green technology innovation plays a partial mediating role in the relationship between the two, and is the core transmission path for e-commerce development to empower the improvement of urban eco-efficiency; this effect has significant urban heterogeneity, and is only significant in cities with high ecological environment quality and high social consumption level. This study enriches the research findings in the related fields of digital economy and eco-efficiency, and provides empirical evidence and decision-making reference for the digital economy to empower the high-quality green development of cities under the Dual Carbon Targets.