2203号台风“暹芭”数值模式产品释用分析与检验

Interpretation Analysis and Verification of Numerical Model Products for Typhoon Chaba (2203)

摘要: 本文利用中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心区域台风数值预报系统(CMA Regional Typhoon Numerical Prediction System简称“CMA-TYM”)、欧洲中期天气预报中心( European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts简称“ECMWF”)和美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction简称NCEP)的确定性模式和集合预报产品对台风“暹芭”的路径、强度以及物理量和产生的风雨影响进行应用对比和检验分析，分析表明：(1) 多家预报机构在“暹芭”的路径预报前期偏差较大，后期趋于一致，业务应用以CMA的路径预报结论为主要依据。(2) “暹芭”的环流形势弱且复杂，通过EC和CMA形势场模式产品对比，CMA对广东沿海的风场预报与实况更接近。(3) 在降水预报中CMA的中尺度模式对降水的落区、时段和强度预报明显优于ECMWF和NCEP的预报结果。

Abstract: Based on the deterministic forecasts and ensemble prediction products from three numerical models, namely the CMA Regional Typhoon Numerical Prediction System (CMA-TYM) developed by the Earth System Numerical Prediction Center of China Meteorological Administration, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model, and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) model, this paper conducts comparative verification analyses on the track, intensity, physical variables, as well as wind and rainfall impacts of Typhoon “Chaba”. The results are as follows: (1) All forecasting institutions exhibited obvious large biases in early track forecasts for “Chaba”, while forecast consistency improved in the later stage; the track prediction of CMA serves as the primary reference for operational forecasting. (2) The synoptic circulation of “Chaba” was weak and complicated. A comparison of synoptic fields between ECMWF and CMA indicates that the wind field forecast of CMA along the coastal areas of Guangdong matches observations better. (3) In terms of precipitation prediction, the mesoscale model of CMA outperforms ECMWF and NCEP considerably in forecasting precipitation coverage, duration and intensity.