需求视角下农村养老抚育资源的优化配置研究——基于山东三地区的服务缺口分析

Research on the Optimal Allocation of Rural Elderly Care and Child Rearing Resources from the Demand Perspective—Based on the Service Gap Analysis of Three Regions in Shandong Province

摘要: 目的：在人口老龄化与农村劳动力外流背景下，探究农村隔代抚养现实困境，探寻乡村养老育幼服务优化路径。方法：以山东省广饶县、沂水县、鱼台县农村隔代抚养家庭为调研样本，采用分层多阶段抽样开展问卷调查，运用信效度检验、描述性统计等方法，系统分析隔代抚养家庭基本特征、服务需求结构、支付意愿水平、儿童心理行为发展状况与村组织服务供给评价，测算区域养老育幼服务市场容量，从规模、结构、质量三个维度识别服务供需缺口，并提出资源优化配置路径。结果：农村隔代抚养照料者呈现高龄化、低学历、中低收入、照料负担偏重特征；隔代抚养儿童同伴交往问题突出，心理关爱服务供给存在明显短板；村组织基础民生帮扶认可度较高，但专业育儿养老技能培训供给不足；家庭收入是服务消费群体分层的核心因素，村组织支持既可直接提升家庭支付意愿，也可通过服务需求产生间接中介作用。结论：当前农村“一老一小”服务存在政府公共覆盖不足、市场服务缺位、社会服务力量薄弱等供需失衡问题，应构建政府兜底、市场供给、社会补充、村组织落地的多元协同供给体系，依据家庭类型分层精准配置服务资源，补齐乡村养老育幼服务短板。

Abstract: Objective: Against the background of population aging and rural labor outflow, this paper explores the practical dilemma of rural grandparenting and discusses the optimization path of rural elderly care and child rearing services. Methods: Taking rural grandparenting families in Guangrao County, Yishui County and Yutai County of Shandong Province as research samples, a questionnaire survey was conducted by stratified multi-stage sampling. Reliability and validity tests, descriptive statistics and other methods were adopted to systematically analyze the basic characteristics of grandparenting families, service demand structure, willingness to pay, children’s psychological and behavioral development, and village organization service supply evaluation. The market capacity of regional elderly care and child rearing services was measured, and the service supply-demand gap was identified from the dimensions of scale, structure and quality, so as to propose the path for optimal resource allocation. Results: Rural grandparent caregivers are characterized by advanced age, low educational level, middle and low income, and heavy care burden. Children in grandparenting families have prominent problems in peer interaction, with an obvious shortage of psychological care services. Village organizations are highly recognized for basic livelihood assistance, while the supply of professional parenting and elderly care skill training is insufficient. Family income is the core factor stratifying service consumer groups. Support from village organizations can not only directly improve families’ willingness to pay, but also exert an indirect mediating effect through service demand. Conclusion: There exists an imbalance between supply and demand in rural elderly and child services, including insufficient government public coverage, absent market services and weak social service forces. It is necessary to construct a multi-dimensional collaborative supply system featuring government guarantee, market supply, social supplementation and village organization implementation, allocate service resources precisely according to family types, and make up for the shortcomings of rural elderly care and child rearing services.