河南省县域农业生产条件时空分异特征与要素关联研究

Study on the Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics and Element Correlation of Agricultural Production Conditions in Counties of Henan Province

摘要: 农业生产条件是保障粮食安全、推进农业现代化的核心物质基础。河南省作为全国第一粮食生产大省，省域内农业生产条件空间分布极不均衡，现有研究对县域尺度的精细化时空分析仍有不足。本文以河南省112个县域为研究单元，基于2000~2021年长时序面板数据，运用熵值法、地理信息系统空间可视化及相关性分析等方法，系统探究其农业生产条件的时空分异特征与要素关联。结果表明：2000~2021年河南省农业生产条件整体持续优化，各核心指标呈现差异化演变趋势；空间上呈显著的东高西低、平原优于山地的梯度分异与连片集聚格局，有效灌溉面积是区域差异的核心决定因素；多维度要素关联呈现 “基建强协同、化肥弱驱动、人口配规模”的耦合特征，灌溉与机械化要素深度协同，化肥投入与粮食单产、总产量的关联强度较弱，增产驱动效应已不显著，人口规模主要通过生产规模路径影响产出总量；包含大量非农成分的农村用电量与纯农业生产指标无显著关联，统计口径对研究结果影响明显。本研究为河南省农业高质量发展和国家粮食安全核心区建设提供了科学依据。

Abstract: Agricultural production conditions serve as the core material foundation for ensuring food security and advancing agricultural modernization. As the leading grain-producing province in China, Henan Province exhibits a highly uneven spatial distribution of agricultural production conditions within its borders. Existing research on fine-grained spatiotemporal analysis at the county level still falls short. This paper takes 112 counties in Henan Province as research units, utilizes long-term panel data spanning from 2000 to 2021, and employs methods such as the entropy method, geographic information system (GIS) spatial visualization, and correlation analysis to systematically explore the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and elemental correlations of agricultural production conditions. The results indicate that agricultural production conditions in Henan Province have been continuously optimized from 2000 to 2021, with various core indicators exhibiting differentiated evolutionary trends. Spatially, there is a significant gradient differentiation and contiguous agglomeration pattern, with higher conditions in the east and lower conditions in the west, and plains outperforming mountainous areas. The effective irrigation area is the core determinant of regional differences. Multidimensional elemental correlations exhibit a coupling characteristic of “strong synergy in infrastructure, weak driving force in fertilizer, and population matching scale”. Irrigation and mechanization elements are deeply synergistic, while the correlation strength between fertilizer input and grain yield per unit area or total output is weak, and the driving effect of yield increase is no longer significant. Population scale mainly affects total output through the production scale path. Rural electricity consumption, which includes a large amount of non-agricultural components, shows no significant correlation with pure agricultural production indicators, and statistical caliber significantly affects research results. This study provides a scientific basis for the high-quality development of agriculture in Henan Province and the construction of a core area for national food security.