低空经济政策对产业结构升级的影响研究——基于产业链、创新链与人才链视角的传导路径分析

Research on the Impact of Low-Altitude Economy Policies on Industrial Structure Upgrading—An Analysis of Transmission Pathways from the Perspectives of Industrial Chain, Innovation Chain, and Talent Chain

摘要: 低空经济作为新质生产力的典型代表，正成为推动产业结构升级的重要力量。本研究基于2000~2023年我国300个地级及以上城市的面板数据为样本，系统梳理低空经济政策体系，基于产业链、创新链、人才链视角，采用双重差分模型实证检验低空经济政策对产业结构高级化与合理化的影响。研究发现：(1) 低空经济政策对产业结构升级呈现显著但非对称的驱动效应：政策显著促进了产业结构合理化，但对高级化的推动作用在全样本中未达统计显著水平；(2) 传导路径分析表明，低空经济政策通过市场需求、科技支出与劳动力流动三条渠道对产业结构升级产生显著的正向传导作用；(3) 异质性检验结果显示，政策效应在高创新水平地区显著，在低创新水平地区为正但不显著，但交互项检验表明两组之间的差异未达到统计显著水平，初步验证了创新的依赖性。本文从多路径传导视角拓展了低空经济政策评估的研究框架，为地方政府立足区域禀赋制定差异化政策、深化产业链创新链人才链协同发展、推动产业结构转型升级提供了实证依据。

Abstract: As a typical representative of new quality productive forces, the low-altitude economy is becoming an important driver of industrial structure upgrading. Based on panel data from 300 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2000 to 2023, this study systematically reviews the policy system of the low-altitude economy. Adopting a triple-chain perspective—industrial chain, innovation chain, and talent chain—it employs a difference-in-differences model to empirically examine the impact of low-altitude economy policies on the advancement and rationalization of industrial structure. The findings are as follows: (1) The policies exert a significant but asymmetric driving effect on industrial structure upgrading, significantly promoting industrial structure rationalization, while their effect on industrial structure advancement is not statistically significant in the full sample. (2) Path analysis reveals that the policies generate significant positive transmission effects on industrial structure upgrading through three channels: market demand, technology expenditure, and labor mobility. (3) Heterogeneity analysis shows that the policy effects are significant in regions with high innovation levels, positive but not significant in regions with low innovation levels. However, interaction term tests indicate that the difference between the two groups is not statistically significant, preliminarily validating innovation dependence. This study expands the evaluation framework of low-altitude economy policies from a multi-path transmission perspective, providing empirical evidence for local governments to formulate differentiated policies based on regional endowments, deepen the synergistic development of the industrial chain, innovation chain, and talent chain, and promote industrial structure transformation and upgrading.