政府补贴对制造业微观索洛悖论的影响——基于创新资源集聚中介效应的实证研究

Government Subsidies and the Micro Solow Paradox in Manufacturing—An Empirical Study Based on the Mediating Effect of Innovation Resource Agglomeration

摘要: 本文以2015~2024年A股制造业上市公司为样本，采用两步法框架，检验政府补贴对企业财务绩效的影响及创新资源集聚的中介机制。研究发现：政府补贴显著提升了企业财务绩效，并显著促进了创新资源集聚。现有研究表明，创新资源集聚因成本前置、收益滞后而对绩效产生负向冲击，呈现创新投入增加但短期盈利未同步提升的微观索洛悖论特征。两条作用路径符号相反，构成不一致中介效应。政府补贴的正向直接效应占主导，净效应为正，有效对冲了创新成本，从而在一定程度上缓解了制造业企业微观层面的索洛悖论。产权异质性显示，民营企业中政府补贴对创新资源集聚的助推效果更为明显。

Abstract: Using a sample of A-share listed manufacturing companies from 2015 to 2024, this paper employs the two-step mediation framework to examine the impact of government subsidies on corporate financial performance and the mediating mechanism of innovation resource agglomeration. The findings show that government subsidies significantly improve financial performance and significantly promote innovation resource agglomeration. Existing research indicates that innovation resource agglomeration, due to front-loaded costs and lagged returns, exerts a negative short-term impact on financial performance, exhibiting the characteristics of the micro Solow paradox: increased innovation input without a corresponding rise in short-term profitability. The signs of the two causal paths are opposite, forming an inconsistent mediating effect. The positive direct effect of government subsidies dominates, resulting in a positive net effect that effectively hedges innovation costs, thereby alleviating the micro Solow paradox in manufacturing to a certain extent. Heterogeneity tests reveal that the positive effect of government subsidies on innovation resource agglomeration is stronger in private enterprises.