数字贸易壁垒对中国跨境电商出口的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Digital Trade Barriers on China’s Cross-Border E-Commerce Exports

摘要: 随着数字经济发展和跨境数据监管加强，数字贸易壁垒对跨境电商出口的影响日益突出。文章基于数字服务贸易限制指数(DSTRI)和经份额分配法估算的中国跨境电商出口数据，考察数字贸易壁垒对中国跨境电商出口的影响。研究发现，数字贸易壁垒显著抑制中国跨境电商出口；在进行缩尾处理、替换核心解释变量测度方式及内生性处理后，结论仍较为稳健。异质性分析表明，相较于发达国家市场，发展中国家市场的跨境电商出口受到的负面影响更为明显。调节效应检验显示，数字基础设施水平能够在一定程度上缓解数字贸易壁垒的抑制作用。研究表明，中国应加强数字贸易壁垒风险识别，引导跨境电商企业通过本地化运营、品牌提升和市场多元化等方式增强出口韧性。

Abstract: With the development of the digital economy and the strengthening of cross-border data regulation, digital trade barriers have become an increasingly important factor affecting cross-border e-commerce exports. Based on the Digital Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (DSTRI) and China’s cross-border e-commerce export data estimated by the share allocation method, this paper examines the impact of digital trade barriers on China’s cross-border e-commerce exports. The results show that digital trade barriers significantly inhibit China’s cross-border e-commerce exports. After winsorization, alternative measures of the core explanatory variable, and treatments for potential endogeneity, the results remain relatively robust. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the negative effect is more pronounced in developing-country markets than in developed-country markets. The moderation analysis further shows that digital infrastructure can partly alleviate the inhibitory effect of digital trade barriers. These findings suggest that China should strengthen the identification and early warning of digital trade barrier risks and guide cross-border e-commerce firms to enhance export resilience through localized operations, brand upgrading, and market diversification.