RTA数字规则深化对数字服务贸易出口复杂度的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Deepening RTA Digital Rules on the Complexity of Digital Service Trade Exports

摘要: 当前，数字服务产业正迎来蓬勃发展的战略机遇期，而全球经贸格局却呈现出复杂多变且不确定性显著提升的态势，RTA数字贸易规则已成为数字经济时代推动经济体实现高水平对外开放的总抓手。本文基于2006~2023年双边面板数据，系统考察了数字贸易规则深化对数字服务出口技术复杂度的影响及其作用机制。研究将规则深化水平分解为反映约束强度的深度指数与体现议题覆盖广度的宽度指数，发现二者均能显著提升出口技术复杂度，且该结论在多种稳健性与内生性检验下保持成立。机制分析表明，规则深化通过提升一国在全球数字贸易规则网络中的结构性地位，间接促进技术复杂度升级。异质性检验进一步揭示：其一，不同子条款效应分化，数据流动与新兴数字经济条款的作用最为突出；其二，规则深度在北–北、北–南及南–南贸易结构中均显著有效，而规则宽度仅在北–南与南–南组合中发挥正向作用；其三，规则深化对电信计算机和信息服务、知识产权使用费及个人文化与娱乐服务的促进效应显著，但在金融服务与其他商业服务中甚至产生抑制效应。本文不仅拓展了数字贸易规则影响服务贸易质量的研究视角，也为我国推动制度型开放、精准参与全球数字治理提供了理论依据与政策启示。

Abstract: Currently, the digital service industry is entering a period of strategic opportunities for vigorous development, while the global economic and trade landscape is showing a complex and volatile trend with significantly increased uncertainty. RTA digital trade rules have become the overall lever for promoting high-level opening-up of economies in the digital economy era. This article is based on bilateral panel data from 2006 to 2023, systematically examining the impact and mechanism of deepening digital trade rules on the technological complexity of digital service exports. The study decomposes the level of rule deepening into a depth index reflecting the strength of constraints and a width index reflecting the breadth of issue coverage. It is found that both can significantly improve the complexity of export technology, and this conclusion holds true under various robustness and endogeneity tests. Mechanism analysis shows that rule deepening indirectly promotes technological complexity upgrading by enhancing a country’s structural position in the global digital trade rule network. Heterogeneity testing further reveals: firstly, the effects of different sub-clauses are differentiated, and the role of data flow and emerging digital economy clauses is most prominent; secondly, the depth of rules is significantly effective in the North-North, North-South, and South-South trade structures, while the width of rules only plays a positive role in the combination of North South and South South; thirdly, the deepening of rules has a significant promoting effect on telecommunications, computer and information services, intellectual property usage fees, and personal cultural and entertainment services, but even has a restraining effect in financial and other commercial services. This article not only expands the research perspective on the impact of digital trade rules on the quality of service trade, but also provides a theoretical basis and policy inspiration for China to promote institutional openness and precise participation in global digital governance.