“一老一小”社区智慧化服务满意度研究——以宁波市为例

A Study on the Satisfaction of Smart Community Services for “One Elderly and One Child”—Taking Ningbo City as an Example

摘要: 随着我国人口老龄化加剧与低生育率并存，“一老一小”社区智慧化服务成为基层治理的重要议题。本文以宁波市社区居民为调查对象，运用问卷调查、实地访谈与数据分析相结合的方法，系统探究老年群体与儿童家长对社区智慧化服务的认知现状、使用行为、核心需求及付费意愿。研究采用PPS抽样结合分层抽样与滚雪球抽样的多阶段方法，回收老年人有效问卷396份、家长有效问卷418份。通过描述性统计、交叉分析、卡方检验、决策树模型、多元线性回归及词频分析等方法，发现当前服务面临“触达断层”“数字鸿沟”“供给错配”“价值困境”四大核心矛盾。研究表明，老年人认知高度依赖传统渠道，线上平台渗透率仅29.0%，操作便捷性与使用信任度是影响付费意愿的最显著维度；家长核心需求聚焦儿童安全与健康管理，付费意愿呈现明显收入门槛效应。基于分析结果，本文从老年人、家长、社区及政府四个层面提出协同优化路径，为社区嵌入式服务精准化供给与基层治理现代化提供实证依据。

Abstract: With the coexistence of population aging and low fertility rates in China, smart community services targeting the “one elderly and one child” have become a key issue in grassroots social governance. This study selects residents in Ningbo City as respondents, adopting questionnaire survey, field interview and data analysis to explore the elderly and parents’ cognition, usage behavior, core demands and willingness to pay for smart community services. A multi-stage sampling method combining PPS sampling, stratified sampling and snowball sampling is applied, with 396 valid questionnaires from the elderly and 418 valid ones from parents collected. Based on descriptive statistics, cross-analysis, chi-square test, decision tree model, multiple linear regression and word frequency analysis, the study identifies four core dilemmas, including “information delivery gap”, “digital divide”, “supply-demand mismatch” and “value dilemma”. The results show that the elderly mainly obtain service information via traditional channels, with the penetration rate of online platforms only 29.0%; operational simplicity and service trust are the dominant factors affecting their willingness to pay. Parents prioritize children’s safety and health management, and their willingness to pay is significantly restricted by household income. On this basis, this paper proposes collaborative optimization strategies for the elderly, parents, communities and governments, so as to provide empirical support for the precise supply of community embedded services and the modernization of grassroots governance.