北京应急物流管理能力评估

Evaluation of Emergency Logistics Management Capacity in Beijing

摘要: 为科学量化城市应急物流管理水平，识别区域能力短板，本文以全国31个省级行政区2023年面板数据为基础，从多主体协作、物流设施保障、区域经济支持、信息化反应四大维度构建包含21项三级指标的综合评价体系，采用熵权法测算各指标权重并得到各省应急物流综合得分；借助核密度估计揭示全国应急物流能力整体与区域化空间特征；运用K-means聚类将各省划分为高水平、中等发展、薄弱、结构失衡四类城市，并进一步通过灰色关联模型识别核心驱动因素。研究表明：全国应急物流呈现“东强西弱”格局，广东综合管理能力领跑，北京属中等发展型城市；信息技术从业人员、卫生技术人员、社会组织规模、人均经济水平是影响应急物流管理能力的关键要素。据此提出人才培育、多元协同、区域均衡调配等优化路径，为各地完善应急物流管理体系、提升城市灾害韧性提供量化支撑与决策参考。

Abstract: To scientifically quantify the development level of urban emergency logistics and identify regional capacity deficiencies, this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation system with 21 tertiary indicators from four dimensions: multi-agent collaboration, logistics facility support, regional economic support and information response, based on the panel data of 31 provincial-level administrative regions in China in 2023. The entropy weight method is adopted to calculate the weight of each indicator and obtain the comprehensive score of emergency logistics of each province. Kernel density estimation is used to reveal the overall and spatial differentiation characteristics of national emergency logistics capacity. K-means clustering classifies all provinces into four types: high-level, medium-developing, weak and structurally unbalanced. The grey correlation model is further applied to identify core driving factors. The study shows that national emergency logistics presents a pattern of “stronger eastern regions and weaker western regions”. Guangdong ranks first in comprehensive capacity, while Beijing belongs to medium-developed cities. IT practitioners, health technicians, scale of social organizations and per capita economic level are the key factors affecting emergency logistics capacity. Accordingly, optimization paths such as talent cultivation, multi-stakeholder collaboration and balanced regional resource allocation are proposed, which provide quantitative support and decision-making reference for all regions to improve emergency logistics systems and urban disaster resilience.