传统经济向数字经济转型对人口增长的影响

The Impact of Traditional Economy Transition to Digital Economy on Population Growth

摘要: 本文选取生育自主、制度安排、传统文化观念与代际惯性作为影响生育意愿的指标，通过讨论传统经济向数字经济转型对它们的影响，分析其对生育意愿的作用机理，建立经济转型影响人口增长的数学模型。实例检验，短期内数字经济转型会对人口增长的内驱力造成极大冲击，但作用效果呈现“非关联性”特征；在大时间跨度下，数字经济转型对人口增长有明显的抑制效应。

Abstract: This paper selects reproductive autonomy, institutional arrangements, traditional cultural values, and intergenerational inertia as indicators influencing fertility intentions. By examining the impact of the transition from a traditional economy to a digital economy on these factors, it analyzes their mechanisms of influence on fertility intentions and establishes a mathematical model of how economic transformation affects population growth. In the short term, the shift to a digital economy exerts significant shocks on the internal drivers of population growth but exhibits a “non-association” characteristic. Over longer time horizons, the digital economy transition demonstrates a clear inhibitory effect on population growth.