欧元竞争力驱动实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Drivers of Euro Competitiveness

摘要: 本文基于非平衡面板数据模型，实证研究了欧元国际竞争力的经济驱动因素，重点分析了货币价值稳定性、金融市场深度、经济规模(网络效应)以及贸易联系对欧元在全球外汇储备中份额的影响。研究采用了涵盖46个经济体、共672个观测值的数据集，控制了路径依赖(惯性)及个体与时间固定效应。结果表明，惯性是解释欧元储备份额变动的最主要因素，所有模型中均在1%水平上显著。经济规模(欧元区与美国GDP世界份额之比)同样对欧元份额产生显著正向影响，验证了网络效应的重要性。然而，金融市场深度的回归系数为负且显著，与理论预期相反，可能反映了欧元区内部债券市场异质性导致的竞争劣势。贸易联系的符号和显著性不稳定，表明公共部门与私人部门的货币选择行为存在差异。时间固定效应模型中，贸易联系符合预期，呈正向显著。整体而言，欧元竞争力的提升依赖于克服惯性、深化内部金融市场一体化，而非仅依赖规模扩张。

Abstract: This paper conducts an empirical study on the economic drivers of the euro’s international competitiveness using an unbalanced panel data model. It focuses on the effects of currency value stability, financial market depth, economic size (network effects), and trade linkages on the euro’s share in global foreign exchange reserves. The analysis is based on a dataset covering 46 economies with 672 observations, controlling for path dependence (inertia) as well as individual and time fixed effects. The results show that inertia is the most dominant factor explaining changes in the euro’s reserve share, remaining statistically significant at the 1% level across all models. Economic size, measured as the ratio of eurozone to US GDP shares, also has a significant positive impact, confirming the importance of network effects. However, financial market depth exhibits a negative and significant coefficient, contradicting theoretical expectations, which may reflect the heterogeneity of eurozone bond markets and their competitive disadvantage relative to the US. The sign and significance of trade linkages are unstable, suggesting discrepancies between public and private sector currency choices. In the time fixed effects model, trade linkages become positive and significant as expected. Overall, enhancing the euro’s competitiveness requires overcoming inertia and deepening internal financial market integration, rather than relying solely on economic size expansion.