数字经济发展对居民消费的影响效果及作用机制检验

The Impact Effect and Mechanism Test of Digital Economy Development on Residents’ Consumption

摘要: 本文基于2008~2023年中国31个省级行政单位面板数据，采用基准回归、中介效应分析等方法，探究数字经济对居民消费的影响及相关传导机制与异质性特征。研究发现，数字经济对居民消费具有显著正向促进作用，这一结论经过稳健性检验验证，具有较强的可靠性。传导机制层面，数字经济主要通过提升居民收入和完善社会保障体系影响居民消费。异质性分析显示，数字经济对不同消费类型、不同群体的影响存在差异，对生存型、发展型消费的赋能作用显著，对农村居民消费的促进效果优于城镇居民，在缩小城乡消费差距、推动消费结构优化方面发挥积极作用。

Abstract: Based on panel data of 31 provincial-level administrative units in China from 2008 to 2023, this paper adopts benchmark regression, mediating effect analysis and other methods to explore the impact of the digital economy on residents’ consumption, as well as the corresponding transmission mechanisms and heterogeneous characteristics. The results show that the digital economy has a significant positive promoting effect on residents’ consumption, and this conclusion is verified by robustness tests with strong reliability. In terms of transmission mechanisms, the digital economy affects residents’ consumption mainly by increasing residents’ income and improving the social security system. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the digital economy exerts differentiated impacts on different consumption types and groups. It significantly empowers subsistence consumption and development-oriented consumption, and its promotion effect on rural residents’ consumption is stronger than that on urban residents’ consumption, playing a positive role in narrowing the urban-rural consumption gap and promoting the optimization of consumption structure.