数字普惠金融对区域经济韧性的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Digital Inclusive Finance on Regional Economic Resilience

摘要: 经济韧性是区域经济抵御外部冲击、维持长期稳定发展的核心能力。数字技术催生的数字普惠金融突破了传统金融的服务局限，为提升区域经济韧性提供了全新路径。文章基于2011~2023年我国31个省级行政区的面板数据，运用双向固定效应模型，实证检验数字普惠金融对区域经济韧性的影响、作用路径及非线性特征。研究发现：1) 数字普惠金融能够显著提升区域经济韧性，在东部地区与数字普惠金融高水平区域的促进作用更强；2) 数字普惠金融通过产业结构升级的方式进而促进区域经济韧性提升；3) 数字普惠金融存在人力资本水平单门槛效应，当人力资本水平跨越门槛值后，其对经济韧性的提升效果增强。据此，研究从产业转型、区域差异化施策以及人才建设三方面提出政策建议。

Abstract: Economic resilience is the core capacity of a regional economy to withstand external shocks and maintain long-term stable development. Digital inclusive finance, driven by digital technology, has overcome the service limitations of traditional finance and provided a new pathway for enhancing regional economic resilience. Based on panel data from China’s 31 provincial-level administrative regions covering the period 2011~2023, this study employs a two-way fixed-effects model to empirically examine the impact of digital inclusive finance on regional economic resilience, its transmission mechanisms, and its nonlinear characteristics. The study finds that: 1) digital inclusive finance significantly enhances regional economic resilience, with a stronger promotional effect in the eastern region and in areas with high levels of digital inclusive finance; 2) digital inclusive finance promotes regional economic resilience by facilitating industrial structure upgrading; 3) digital inclusive finance exhibits a single-threshold effect regarding human capital levels; once human capital levels exceed the threshold value, its effect on enhancing economic resilience is amplified. Based on these findings, this paper proposes policy recommendations in three areas: industrial transformation, differentiated regional policies, and talent development.