文旅融合背景下大运河文化带文化遗产与旅游产业耦合协调评价——基于2012~2023年省域面板数据的实证分析

Evaluation of Coupling Coordination between Cultural Heritage and Tourism Industry in the Grand Canal Cultural Belt under Cultural-Tourism Integration—An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data from 2012 to 2023

摘要: 大运河文化带作为我国文旅融合高质量发展的核心战略载体，实现文化遗产保护传承与旅游产业开发的协同耦合是其可持续发展的关键。研究以大运河沿线六省二市为研究对象，基于2012~2023年省域面板数据，从文化遗产和旅游产业两个维度构建指标体系，采用熵值法测算两系统综合发展水平，并利用耦合协调度模型揭示两系统的时空演化规律与融合格局。研究发现：时序层面，两系统发展水平整体呈现稳步上升态势，2020年受公共突发卫生事件冲击出现阶段性波动，但后续快速复苏；耦合协调水平持续优化。空间层面，文旅融合呈现显著的“南强北弱、东高西低”特征，多数省域存在“旅游扩张领先，文化遗产活化滞后”的结构性失衡。基于此，文章提出差异化发展、强化文化遗产活化、构建跨区域协同治理机制等建议，为促进大运河文化带的文旅深度融合与高质量发展提供实证依据。

Abstract: The Grand Canal Cultural Belt serves as a core strategic vehicle for China’s high-quality culture–tourism integration, and achieving synergistic coupling between cultural heritage preservation and tourism development is key to its sustainability. Focusing on the six provinces and two municipalities along the Grand Canal, this study constructs an indicator system covering cultural heritage and tourism industry dimensions using provincial panel data from 2012 to 2023. The entropy method measures the comprehensive development levels of both systems, and a coupling coordination degree model reveals their spatio-temporal evolution and integration patterns. The findings show: Temporally, the overall development levels of both systems trended steadily upward, with a temporary fluctuation in 2020 due to the public health emergency, followed by a rapid recovery; coupling coordination continuously improved. Spatially, culture-tourism integration displayed a marked “strong south, weak north; high east, low west” pattern, and most provinces experienced a structural imbalance where tourism expansion outpaced cultural heritage revitalization. Accordingly, this paper proposes differentiated development, enhanced cultural heritage revitalization, and cross-regional collaborative governance mechanisms, providing empirical evidence for deepening culture-tourism integration and promoting high-quality development of the Grand Canal Cultural Belt.