电子商务赋能经济增长的机制与区域差异——来自中国省级面板数据的实证分析

The Mechanism of E-Commerce Empowering Economic Growth and Regional Disparities—Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data from China

摘要: 本文基于新经济增长与网络效应理论，构建了电子商务通过技术、基础设施与人力资本三条路径影响经济发展的分析框架，并利用2014~2023年中国31个省级行政单位的面板数据进行实证分析。研究发现：第一，电子商务发展能够显著促进我国经济发展；第二，按照地理区位和市场化水平分组进行异质性回归，结果表明，电子商务发展对我国经济发展的促进作用在东中部地区尤为显著，在西部地区不明显，在低市场化地区更为显著，而在高市场化地区不显著；第三，机制检验显示，电子商务主要通过提升技术水平、完善基础设施和优化人力素质三条路径赋能经济增长。本研究为理解数字经济时代下电子商务的经济效应提供了理论与实证证据，并为区域差异化电商政策制定提供了参考。

Abstract: Based on the theory of new economic growth and network effects, this paper constructs an analytical framework examining how e-commerce influences economic development through three pathways: technology, infrastructure, and human capital, and conducts an empirical analysis using panel data from 31 Chinese provinces between 2014 and 2023. The research findings are as follows: First, the development of e-commerce can significantly promote China’s economic growth. Second, when conducting heterogeneous regression by grouping according to geographical location and marketization level, the results show that the promoting effect of e-commerce on China’s economic development is particularly significant in the eastern and central regions, not obvious in the western region, more significant in low marketization areas, and not significant in high marketization areas. Third, the mechanism test reveals that e-commerce mainly empowers economic growth by enhancing technological levels, improving infrastructure, and optimizing human quality. This study provides theoretical and empirical evidence for understanding the economic effects of e-commerce in the digital economy era and offers references for the formulation of regionally differentiated e-commerce policies.