人口老龄化、金融资源错配与企业投资效率——以长江经济带为例

Population Aging, Financial Resource Misallocation, and Corporate Investment Efficiency—Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt as an Example

摘要: 人口老龄化已成为中国经济社会发展的重要结构性特征。本文以长江经济带2007~2023年上市公司为样本，实证检验人口老龄化对企业金融资源错配的影响、作用机制及经济后果。研究发现：人口老龄化显著加剧了企业金融资源错配，这一结论经过多重稳健性检验后依然成立；机制检验表明，人口老龄化通过抑制人力资本升级和压缩企业债务融资两条路径加剧金融资源错配，而数字金融发展水平则能有效缓解这一负面影响；异质性分析显示，老龄化对金融资源错配的加剧效应在成长期企业、衰退期企业以及劳动密集型企业中更为显著；进一步的经济后果检验发现，老龄化与金融资源错配的叠加效应主要通过加剧投资不足路径，最终导致企业整体投资效率下降。本研究为理解人口老龄化的微观经济效应提供了新视角，也为优化金融资源配置、促进区域经济高质量发展提供了政策启示。

Abstract: Population aging has become a significant structural characteristic of China’s economic and social development. Using data of listed companies in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2007 to 2023, this paper empirically examines the impact, mechanisms, and economic consequences of population aging on corporate financial resource misallocation. The findings reveal that population aging significantly exacerbates corporate financial resource misallocation, and this conclusion remains robust after a series of robustness tests. Mechanism analysis shows that population aging aggravates financial resource misallocation by inhibiting human capital upgrading and compressing corporate debt financing, while the development of digital finance effectively mitigates this negative impact. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the exacerbating effect of aging on financial resource misallocation is more pronounced in growing enterprises, declining enterprises, and labor-intensive enterprises. Further economic consequence tests reveal that the combined effect of aging and financial resource misallocation primarily aggravates underinvestment, ultimately leading to a decline in overall corporate investment efficiency. This study provides a new perspective for understanding the microeconomic effects of population aging and offers policy implications for optimizing financial resource allocation and promoting high-quality regional economic development.