基于省际对比与驱动分析的广西关键金属产业高质量发展测度及政企耦合机制研究

High-Quality Development of Guangxi’s Critical Metals Industry: An Interprovincial Comparison and Analysis of Government-Enterprise Coupling Mechanisms

摘要: 全球关键矿产地缘竞争持续加剧、国内资源安全约束不断收紧，对比广西、云南、江西三省关键金属产业高质量发展水平、政企协同耦合机制具备理论与现实双重价值。本文构建宏观产业环境–微观企业活力跨尺度嵌套评价体系，采用熵权-TOPSIS模型量化产业发展质量；引入耦合协调模型刻画政企系统协同演化特征；运用面板固定效应LSDV回归、灰色关联分析识别内生驱动因素，并采用ARIMA模型模拟完成中长期趋势预测。研究结果表明：广西关键金属产业依靠产能规模扩张实现得分平稳上涨，但创新短板导致综合实力落后于江西；江西属于创新引领发展模式，云南为资源扩张竞速模式；三省系统耦合程度长期处于高位，协调度呈V型波动；基准情景下2030年广西政企耦合协调度可达0.85。据此提出强化自主创新溢价、优化政策传导链路、差异化培育龙头企业、深化省际产业协同四条路径，为“十五五”区域关键金属产业升级提供量化支撑。

Abstract: As global geopolitical competition for critical minerals intensifies and domestic resource security constraints continue to tighten, comparing the high-quality development levels and government–enterprise coupling coordination mechanisms of critical metal industries in Guangxi, Yunnan, and Jiangxi holds both theoretical and practical significance. This paper constructs a cross-scale nested evaluation framework that integrates the macro industrial environment with micro enterprise vitality. The entropy-weight TOPSIS model is employed to quantify industrial development quality, a coupling coordination model is introduced to characterize the co-evolution of government–enterprise systems, panel fixed-effects LSDV regression and grey relational analysis are applied to identify endogenous driving factors, and an ARIMA model is used to conduct medium- and long-term trend forecasting. The results show that Guangxi’s critical metal industry has achieved steady score improvements through capacity expansion, yet its innovation shortcomings cause its comprehensive strength to lag behind Jiangxi. Jiangxi follows an innovation-driven development model, while Yunnan pursues a resource-expansion racing model. The system coupling degree among the three provinces remains high over the long term, and the coordination degree exhibits a V-shaped fluctuation. Under the baseline scenario, Guangxi’s government–enterprise coupling coordination degree could reach 0.85 by 2030. On this basis, four pathways are proposed: strengthening independent innovation premiums, optimizing policy transmission links, cultivating leading enterprises in a differentiated manner, and deepening inter-provincial industrial coordination, thereby providing quantitative support for the upgrading of regional critical metal industries during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.