大连市农业化肥投入与经济增长的耦合协调关系研究

Research on the Coupling Coordination Relationship between Agricultural Fertilizer Input and Economic Growth in Dalian

摘要: 科学评估农业化肥投入与经济增长的耦合协调关系，对沿海城市农业绿色转型具有重要现实意义。本文基于2018~2024年大连市时序数据，针对大连市渔业产值占比高、化肥投入仅覆盖种植业的统计口径错位问题，创新性地将第一产业增加值扣除渔业部分后纳入分析，构建涵盖化肥投入规模、强度、效率及种植业经济增长规模、效益、结构的多维指标体系，运用熵权法、耦合协调度模型及Tapio脱钩模型，系统分析大连市农业化肥投入与种植业经济增长的耦合协调关系及脱钩状态。结果表明：研究期内化肥投入系统综合评价指数呈波动下降态势，种植业经济增长系统综合评价指数呈波动上升态势，但耦合协调度长期处于“高耦合、低协调”的濒临失调至勉强协调阶段；化肥投入与经济增长总体实现弱脱钩，但脱钩稳定性不足。据此提出推进测土配方施肥、优化产业结构、完善生态补偿机制等对策建议。

Abstract: Scientifically evaluating the coupling coordination relationship between agricultural fertilizer input and economic growth is of great practical significance for the green transformation of coastal cities. Based on the time series data of Dalian from 2018 to 2024, this paper innovatively deducts the fishery output from the primary industry value added to address the statistical misalignment caused by the high proportion of fishery output in Dalian’s economy and the fact that fertilizer input only covers crop farming. A multi-dimensional index system covering the scale, intensity and efficiency of fertilizer input, as well as the scale, benefit and structure of planting industry economic growth is constructed. By using the entropy weight method, coupling coordination degree model and Tapio decoupling model, this paper systematically analyzes the coupling coordination relationship and decoupling state between agricultural fertilizer input and planting industry economic growth in Dalian. The results show that during the study period, the comprehensive evaluation index of the fertilizer input system showed a fluctuating downward trend, while that of the planting industry economic growth system showed a fluctuating upward trend; however, the coupling coordination degree remained in the stage of near imbalance to barely coordination; fertilizer input and economic growth generally achieved weak decoupling, but the decoupling stability was insufficient. Accordingly, countermeasures and suggestions are put forward, such as promoting soil testing and formula fertilization, optimizing industrial structure, and improving ecological compensation mechanism.