低碳视角下基于层次分析法的生鲜冷链物流发展评价——以某生鲜农产品冷链物流业为例

Evaluation of Fresh Agricultural Product Cold Chain Logistics Development from a Low-Carbon Perspective Using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)—A Case Study of a Fresh Agricultural Product Cold Chain Logistics

摘要: 随着生鲜冷链物流的发展，高能耗、高排放等问题日益凸显，低碳转型已成为行业发展的途径。鉴于此，研究以生鲜农产品冷链物流为研究对象，基于低碳视角，采用层次分析法(AHP)对其发展进行评价。结果表明，低碳运营水平(权重0.423)和基础设施条件(权重0.287)是影响生鲜冷链物流低碳发展的主要因素，其次为经济效益(0.194)和低碳环境(0.096)。专家评分显示，新能源冷藏车占比(92.1分)和碳监测机制健全度(90.7分)表现较好，而冷链流通损耗率(58.4分)、单位周转量碳排放(62.5分)和碳交易收益(42.3分)得分较低，是当前低碳转型的薄弱环节。模糊综合评价得分为64.15，等级为“好”，表明该市生鲜冷链物流低碳转型已取得一定进展，但在运营降碳和碳交易机制方面仍有较大提升空间。因此，应加快推进核心装备绿色更新，依托数字化实现精益化运营，同时完善碳交易机制与激励政策，在实现温室气体减排的同时，推动行业可持续发展。

Abstract: With the advancement of fresh agricultural product cold chain logistics, issues such as high energy consumption and significant emissions have become increasingly prominent, making low-carbon transformation an inevitable industry trend. This study focuses on cold chain logistics for fresh agricultural products and employs the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) from a low-carbon perspective to evaluate its development. Results indicate that low-carbon operational efficiency (weight: 0.423) and infrastructure capabilities (weight: 0.287) are the primary factors influencing low-carbon development of fresh agricultural product cold chain logistics, followed by economic benefits (0.194) and environmental sustainability (0.096). Expert evaluations highlight strong performance in new-energy refrigerated vehicle adoption (92.1 points) and carbon monitoring system maturity (90.7 points), while cold chain loss rates (58.4 points), carbon emissions per unit turnover (62.5 points), and carbon trading revenues (42.3 points) remain weak areas requiring improvement. The comprehensive fuzzy evaluation score of 64.15 is classified as “excellent”, indicating partial progress in low-carbon transformation but significant room for enhancement in operational decarbonization and carbon trading mechanisms. Therefore, it is imperative to accelerate the green upgrade of core equipment, leverage digitalization to achieve lean operations, and enhance carbon trading mechanisms and incentive policies, thereby reducing greenhouse gas emissions while promoting high-quality, sustainable development across the industry.