人口结构转型对基本公共服务供需的冲击与应对

The Impact of Population Structure Transformation on Basic Public Service Supply and Demand and Corresponding Responses

摘要: 研究旨在剖析当下我国人口结构转型对基本公共服务供需格局的系统性冲击，并探索优化公共服务配置的现实路径。我国人口流动呈现向沿海、向城市、向中心城市集中的长期趋势，并与老龄化、少子化、家庭小型化等转型特征相互叠加，引发了公共服务供需的系统性冲击。研究发现，需求侧面临规模剧增且城乡两极分化、需求结构全面升级、空间高度集中的三重冲击；供给侧则凸显资源配置滞后于人口流动、新兴服务供给结构失衡、供给效率低下且资源匹配错位等突出问题。为破解供需失衡，提出“服务随人走”，主张通过动态适配人口流动需求、聚焦需求结构升级、破除户籍壁垒、构建政府、市场和社会组织多元协同供给格局等对策，推动基本公共服务均等化，保障流动人口的民生福祉，助力建设人力资本大国。

Abstract: This study aims to analyze the systemic impact of population structure transformation on the supply-demand pattern of Basic public services in the context of a “Mobile China” and to explore practical pathways for optimizing public service allocation. China’s population mobility exhibits a long-term trend of concentration toward coastal areas, cities, and central cities, compounded by demographic shifts such as population aging, declining fertility, and household miniaturization, thereby triggering systemic shocks to the supply and demand of public services. The study finds that the demand side faces a triple shock: dramatic scale expansion with urban-rural polarization, comprehensive upgrading of demand structure, and high spatial concentration. The supply side is marked by resource allocation lagging behind population mobility, structural imbalance in the supply of emerging services, low supply efficiency, and resource mismatch. To address this imbalance, the paper proposes the principle of “services moving with the people”, advocating for countermeasures such as dynamically adapting to the needs of mobile populations, focusing on demand structure upgrading, dismantling household registration barriers, and constructing a pluralistic collaborative supply framework involving the government, market, and social organizations. These efforts aim to promote the equalization of basic public services, safeguard the well-being of the floating population, and contribute to building a human capital powerhouse.