基于CHFS数据的人口老龄化对家庭商业人寿保险需求的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Population Aging on Household Commercial Life Insurance Demand Based on CHFS Data

摘要: 本研究基于2021年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据，选取22,026户家庭样本，运用二元逻辑回归模型与中介效应模型实证检验人口老龄化对家庭商业人寿保险需求的影响及内在机制。研究结果显示，人口老龄化显著负向抑制家庭商业人寿保险需求，家庭65岁及以上人口占比每增加1个百分点，购买优势比下降79.3%，其部分作用路径通过降低家庭总收入实现，且该结论经家庭人均收入替换检验后保持稳健。商业人寿保险渗透率呈现显著地域梯度差异，三线及以下城市家庭参保概率较一线城市低41.7%，乡村家庭参保概率显著低于城镇家庭。家庭抚养负担加重引发的预算约束构成老龄化抑制保险需求的核心原因，城乡二元结构与城市等级差异形成外部约束环境。建议保险公司拓展二三线城市及乡村市场，针对老龄化家庭设计高杠杆医疗产品并嵌入健康管理服务，依托数字化渠道降低获客成本，制定差异化费率方案以提升细分市场渗透率。

Abstract: Based on the 2021 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) data, this study selected a sample of 22,026 households, and used binary logistic regression model and mediating effect model to empirically test the impact and internal mechanism of population aging on households’ demand for commercial life insurance. The results show that population aging significantly and negatively inhibits households’ demand for commercial life insurance: when the proportion of population aged 65 and above in a household increases by 1 percentage point, the probability of purchasing commercial life insurance decreases by approximately 79.3%. This effect is achieved through reducing total household income, and the conclusion remains robust after the replacement test of per capita household income. Commercial insurance penetration presents significant regional gradient differences: the insurance participation probability of households in third-tier and lower-tier cities is 41.7% lower than that of households in first-tier cities, and the probability for rural households is significantly lower than that for urban households. The budget constraint caused by the increased family dependency burden constitutes the core reason for aging to inhibit insurance demand, while the urban-rural dual structure and urban hierarchy differences form the external constraint environment. It is suggested that insurance companies expand the markets in second- and third-tier cities and rural areas, design high-leverage medical products embedded with health management services for aging families, reduce customer acquisition costs relying on digital channels, and formulate differentiated rate plans to improve penetration in segmented markets.