外商直接投资对城市碳排放的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Urban Carbon Emissions

摘要: 在“双碳”目标和高水平对外开放背景下，外商直接投资能否促进城市低碳发展，是理解开放型经济与绿色转型关系的重要问题。文章基于2000~2023年中国300个城市的面板数据，构建双向固定效应模型，实证考察外商直接投资对城市碳排放的影响及其作用机制。基准回归结果显示，外商直接投资显著抑制城市碳排放，且该结论在一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。机制检验表明，外商直接投资能够通过推动产业结构升级和促进绿色技术创新降低城市碳排放。异质性分析证实，外商直接投资的碳减排效应存在明显地区差异和经济发展水平差异，东部和西部城市的减排效应强于中部城市，高经济发展水平城市的减排效应强于低经济发展水平城市。研究结论为推动经济高质量发展、实现“双碳”目标提供了重要的经验证据和政策启示。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of the “dual carbon” goals and high-level opening-up, whether foreign direct investment can promote low-carbon urban development is a key issue in understanding the relationship between an open economy and green transition. Based on panel data for Chinese cities from 2000 to 2023, this paper constructs a two-way fixed-effects model to empirically examine the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on urban carbon emissions and its underlying mechanisms. Baseline regression results show that FDI significantly reduces urban carbon emissions, and this conclusion holds after a series of robustness tests. Mechanism tests indicate that FDI can reduce urban carbon emissions by driving industrial structure upgrading and promoting green technological innovation. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the carbon emission reduction effects of FDI exhibit significant regional variations and differences across levels of economic development. The emission reduction effects are stronger in eastern and western cities than in central cities, and stronger in cities with higher levels of economic development than in those with lower levels. The findings of this study provide important empirical evidence and policy implications for promoting high-quality economic development and achieving the “dual carbon” goals.