外商直接投资水平对宏观杠杆率的影响——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Level on Macro Leverage Ratio—An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

摘要: 宏观杠杆率是衡量经济债务风险与金融稳定性的核心指标，其合理管控是经济高质量发展的关键。外商直接投资(FDI)作为国内国际双循环的重要纽带，其对中国省级宏观杠杆率的影响机制与异质性特征仍未被充分揭示。基于此，本文利用中国31个省级行政单位2013~2023年共11年的面板数据，采用固定效应模型、中介效应模型、稳健性检验与异质性分析等方法，实证考察FDI对省级宏观杠杆率的影响效应、传导路径与边界条件。研究发现：一是FDI对省级宏观杠杆率具有显著抑制作用，该结论经替换核心解释变量后依然稳健；二是产业结构升级是核心传导渠道，FDI可通过推动绿色转型、数字化升级与微观投入结构调整促进产业结构升级，增强区域偿债能力，进而抑制杠杆率攀升；三是FDI的影响存在显著地区异质性，呈现“西强东次、中部微弱、东北反常”的空间格局，西部抑制效应最强，东部次之，中部效应微弱且显著性较低，东北呈不显著正向影响。本文结论为我国扩大高水平对外开放背景下，优化FDI配置、推动产业结构升级、实施差异化区域政策，防范化解省级债务风险、维护金融安全提供了经验证据与政策参考。

Abstract: Macro leverage ratio is a core indicator of economic debt risk and financial stability, and its rational regulation is critical to high-quality economic development. As a key link in China’s domestic and international dual circulation, the impact mechanism and heterogeneous characteristics of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on China’s provincial macro leverage ratio remain under-explored. Using 11-year panel data from 31 Chinese provinces, this paper empirically examines the impact, transmission channels and boundary conditions of FDI on provincial macro leverage ratio via fixed-effects model, mediation effect model, robustness tests and heterogeneity analysis. The findings are as follows: First, FDI exerts a significant inhibitory effect on provincial macro leverage ratio, and this conclusion remains robust after replacing the core explanatory variable. Second, industrial upgrading is the core transmission channel: FDI promotes industrial upgrading through green transformation, digital upgrading and micro input structure adjustment, which strengthens regional debt-servicing capacity and thus curbs leverage growth. Third, FDI’s impact features significant regional heterogeneity, presenting a spatial pattern of “strongest in the west, secondary in the east, weak in the central, and anomalous in the northeast”. Specifically, the inhibitory effect is strongest in western China, followed by the eastern region; the effect is weak and lowly significant in the central region, while an insignificant positive impact is found in the northeast. The findings provide empirical evidence and policy implications for China to prevent and defuse provincial debt risks and safeguard financial security by optimizing FDI allocation, promoting industrial structure upgrading and implementing differentiated regional policies under the background of high-level opening-up.