数字经济背景下农产品电商供应链风险传导与韧性治理研究

Risk Transmission and Resilience Governance of Agricultural E-Commerce Supply Chains in the Context of the Digital Economy

摘要: 在数字经济与农村电商快速发展的背景下，农产品电商供应链呈现出网络化、平台化特征，其稳定性面临更复杂的风险传导问题。本文基于复杂网络理论，将农产品电商供应链抽象为无标度网络结构，构建SIR传播模型对供应链中断风险的扩散过程进行仿真分析，并结合网络指标，开展动态蓄意攻击下的网络韧性评价。研究发现：农产品电商供应链具有显著的关键节点依赖特征；风险传播速度与恢复能力共同决定系统稳定性；相较随机攻击，针对高中心性节点的蓄意攻击对网络结构破坏更为显著，其中接近度中心性节点对网络韧性影响最大。基于此，应通过强化关键节点管理、构建分级管理框架、提升数字化协同水平及增强替代与恢复能力，提高农产品电商供应链的整体韧性。

Abstract: In the context of the rapid development of the digital economy and rural e-commerce, agricultural e-commerce supply chains have evolved toward networked and platform-based structures, making their stability more vulnerable to complex risk transmission. Based on complex network theory, this study models the agricultural e-commerce supply chain as a scale-free network and employs an SIR model to simulate the propagation of supply chain disruption risks. Furthermore, network metrics are applied to evaluate supply chain resilience under dynamic targeted attacks. The results show that the agricultural e-commerce supply chain exhibits a strong dependence on key nodes; the stability of the system is jointly determined by the rate of risk transmission and the recovery capacity. Compared with random attacks, targeted attacks on high-centrality nodes cause more significant structural damage, among which nodes with high closeness centrality have the greatest impact on network resilience. Accordingly, enhancing resilience requires strengthening the management of key nodes, establishing a tiered management framework, improving digital coordination, and increasing redundancy and recovery capabilities.